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President Zuma Vs Minister Gordhan: The Mexican Standoff is about to End!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2017 · 3 responses

Over the past 24 hours, President Zuma has signalled his strongest message yet that he is ready to introduce his long -awaited cabinet reshuffle. In my earlier notes I had predicted that he would do so by March 3rd, or latest March 10th! He missed those deadlines, and he now has to catch up. The ...

Week of March 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2017

The government will announce budget cuts, and according to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, tax increases may also be announced. The Senate is expected to vote on the outsourcing proposal. The rapporteur of Pension Reform in the Lower House is finishing his report. Revenue and public accounts...

Transparency in Meeting the Primary Deficit Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2017

With the economy still in recession, it will not be easy to cut spending and increase taxes. But both of these actions will be necessary in 2017 to meet the primary deficit target. The lower projection for GDP growth and the frustrating results of some non-recurring revenues have reduced the expe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 26 Mar 2017 · 1 response

In the presidential referendum polls, NO gained a slight edge first time since we began tabulating them. This is partly because pro-AKP agencies still refrain from publishing their results. We believe the race is breathtakingly close. While AKP still has the means to score a last second victory, ...

Robust wage growth, slightly higher than expected, in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2017

Since we wrote about the possible outcomes of the Monetary Council's next rate-setting meeting and quarterly inflation report on March 28 in our latest monthly report (about a week ago), the following facts have been reported, with possible implications on central bank policy:a) In January 2017, ...

Industry loses 1.7% on trade blockade in February
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2017

In February industrial output fell 4.6% y/y compared to +5.6% y/y in the prior month. Predictably, mining (-11.5% y/y) and metals (-4.3% y/y) led the decline. However, the major part of the drop was due to high comparative base: industry decline was only 1.7% y/y when adjusted for calendar days. ...

Politics: The Challenges Facing the PAN in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 23 Mar 2017

The latest polling continues to suggest that next year’s presidential race will be mainly between Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and the eventual nominee of the National Action Party (PAN), with at least one poll showing the latter party with a five-point edge 16 months before the vote. Mo...

Economics: Access to Credit Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Financing to the non financial private sector continued to experience high levels of real-term growth in late 2016, and bank credit in particular sustained an especially pronounced expansion during January 2017 in the case of both company loans and consumer credit, according to central bank data....

Outsourcing vote spells trouble ahead for Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Yesterday, the Lower House approved the bill that regulates outsourcing in Brazil, with 231 votes in favor and 188 against. In 2015, a similar proposal (Bill 4330/04) was approved by the Lower House by a more comfortable margin: 324-137.

Too Close To Be Good
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2017

The latest polls published March 21st by four independent pollsters give Lenin Moreno, the official candidate an advantage of around 4% over Guillermo Lasso, the candidate from the opposition for the second round election that will take place next April the second. Null and blank votes sum a...

Seeking Growth of About 6.5%
CHINA · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in a March 5th address to Congress that China was aiming for growth of about 6.5% for 2017, with CPI of about 3%. He also said the government would continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and maintain a prudent and neutral monetary policy, with the M2 ...

After Tatfondbank: latest Russian Central Bank licensing moves show tightening, even for state banks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Following Tatfondbank’s license revocation in early March, the Central Bank of Russia has shown not only its appetite for closing private pocket banks, but also its readiness to tackle criminal mismanagement of assets in larger state-owned institutions.

Rapid changes at Rosneft altering Russia’s O&G sector
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Since the start of 2017 Rosneft has announced news on foreign projects almost on a weekly basis: March 21 the company agreed with Egypt on delivery of 10 tankers of LNG for the year, following plans to exploit the Zohr gas field in the Mediterranean alongside Eni and BP. In February, it settled o...

Domestic Investment Booms amid Scarce FDI: Agriculture and State Investment Drives Growth
UKRAINE · Report · 22 Mar 2017

In 2016, investment in fixed assets began to recover quickly, growing +18.0% y/y through the year, with 2H 2016 especially strong. More specifically, investment in fixed assets increased 27.2% y/y in 3Q 2016 and 20.8% y/y in 4Q 2016. All this happened amid a meager FDI inflow of $3.3 billion in 2...

The Current Account Deficit Contracts in 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Mar 2017

Following an increase during the third quarter of 2016 (to 3.8% of GDP), the deficit on the current account narrowed markedly during the fourth quarter of 2016 to register 1.7% of GDP. In a similar manner, the current account deficit for 2016 as a whole declined to 3.3% of GDP from 4.4% of GDP in...

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