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New Urbanization Strategy to Contain Housing Bubble
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2017

GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q1, its fastest growth since last year, and up 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. But, given the end of producer price appreciation, and real estate market re-tightening, we expect this recovery to be temporary. Industrial output rose 6.8% y/y, up 0.7 pps from Q4. March saw a particu...

Fiscal policy and politics: new developments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Apr 2017

Neither of the government's 2017 convergence report, which is due to be delivered to the EU by end-April, nor the draft budget plan for 2018, expected to go to parliament within days, have been published so far. But at least the fiscal deficit target for 2018 was announced at 2.4% of GDP, unchang...

A Weak Start
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2017

After a sobering Q1, we’ve cut our 2017 GDP growth forecast, to 1.9% from 2.5%. That’s also closer to the Central Bank’s 2% annual growth forecast. These results, and a more dovish Central Bank board composition, as expected lead the Bank to cut rates faster – 50 bp this month. We expect rates to...

China’s First Quarter Credit Expansion
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Apr 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • What many analysts call China’s higher-than-expected GDP growth rate for the first quarter should not be classified as “higher than expected” if it is accompanied by higher-than-expected credit expansion. In China, growth is largely a function of th...

El Salvador: An Unfortunate Step Backward
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Apr 2017 · 1 response

El Salvador has taken a step backward in its efforts to improve economic conditions. What we consider an unfortunate government decision – the announcement that it has been forced to miss payments on pension certificates – has created unnecessary turmoil, with unwanted consequences. New downgrade...

Economics: Public Finance Challenges Grow
MEXICO · Report · 26 Apr 2017

In late March of this year, Banco de México’s Board of Governors signed off on the audited financial statements for the close of 2016. The main takeaway from the announcement – although also notable was the record increase in the central bank’s operating surplus to 535.3 billion pesos – was the ...

Politics: A State of Systemic Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 26 Apr 2017

Mexico may be no stranger to the scourge of corruption, but it certainly had no precedent for the parade of state governors arrested, charged, and otherwise denounced for acts of corruption just in the past two weeks. Although the arrests were confined to two fugitive former governors – Tomás Yar...

MPC: Tighter, Yet Still Behind
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by a further 50 bps today to 12.25%, atop last meeting’s (March 16, 2017) 75 bps hike, while keeping all other short-term rates unchanged (see chart). The consensus was “tilted toward” no change of the LLW rate (as we...

Secret service conducts a search at one of the largest local investment bank
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2017

Secret service of Ukraine conducted a search in Dragon capital, one of the largest local investment banks – this news broke the headlines today. Press-service of Dragon capital reported that secret service was looking for unlicensed soft at the computers of the investment company (ridiculous blam...

Turkey’s ”European vocation” in jeopardy
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2017

Last year, European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution to suspend Turkey’s accession negotiations with EU. Yesterday, The Parliamentary Assembly of European Council (PAEC) reduced Turkey’s membership to “monitoring” status, citing the State of Emergency and the detention of large number o...

Week of April 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2017

The general workers’ strike scheduled for Friday is expected to see significant support and bring chaos to cities throughout the country. The Lower House may conclude voting on states’ debt. Labor Reform is also on the voting agenda. The Special Committee on Pension Reform discusses the report by...

Inflation Continues Falling
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2017

For the first time since January 2010, inflation accumulated over the preceding 12 months is now below the target, and all signs are that the deceleration process will continue in the coming months. The recession is nearing its end, but the tendency will be for very slow recovery. This, along wit...

Can Moreno Govern a Divided Country?
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2017 · 1 response

President-elect Lenín Moreno refused all invitations to debate during the two months of campaigning – as he was probably self-conscious about his nonetheless-evident weaknesses. After a complicated and almost violent campaign that ended with a recount of close to 1.2 million votes, he was finall...

Time for a Strong Macro Stimulus
PERU · In Brief · 23 Apr 2017

After a disappointing GDP growth in February (0.7% y/y), leading indicators suggest a much worse performance for March – the monthly impact of El Niño phenomenon at its peak. A negative growth rate for that month is expected, and we would not be surprised to see GDP dropping by as much as 1% y/y ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2017 · 1 response

We begin by laying out the evidence about the fairness of the referendum voting. From a legal viewpoint, the High Election Council ruling to count the unstamped ballot slips weakened voter security and made it difficult to detect fraud. On the other hand, there is not enough evidence that the HEC...

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