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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

YES camp wins a narrow victory, I suppose
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2017

As I write these lines, PM Yildirim is giving his victory speech, because Turkey’s semi-official news agency Anatolian Agency announced the results of the presidential referendum. The constitutional amendments granting president Erdogan broad executive powers were approved by a margin of 51.3% to...

Clouds on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Apr 2017

​Venezuela made the first heavy payment of 2017 on April 12: $2.1 billion in principal and interest on the Pdvsa 2017 bond and $122 million in interest on the Pdvsa 2027 and 2037 bonds. But another $8.2 billion are still due this year: $3.9 billion on Pdvsa bonds, $2.2 billion in sovereign bonds,...

The Central bank cuts policy rate by 1 ppt down to 13%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Apr 2017

Today the Board of Directors of the Central bank cut policy rate by 1ppt down to 13%. This decision was quite surprising after Valeria Hontareva, the Head of the Central bank announced her resignation from May 10th. We expected the Board of Directors to take a pause till the day new Head of the C...

Economics: Public Finance Challenges Grow
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Reports released last week by the Ministry of Finance provided insight into the recent evolution of the Mexican economy as well as the recent evolution of, and prospects for, both public finance and the country’s macroeconomic context. On one hand, the ministry published public sector financi...

Politics: Further Evidence of a PAN-Morena Race
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2017

The polling data regarding the 2018 presidential election points to some clear trends. The incumbent PRI’s prospects have worsened considerably. Just since our November poll the percentage of those who picked the PRI as their choice in the presidential contest fell seven points to 19%. A year...

​BCRA tightens again monetary policy, will the economy stand the pressure?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 12 Apr 2017

In Yesterday’s Monetary Policy Meeting, the BCRA decided to raise its reference rate by 150bps. It maintained the 75bps spread around it to define the 7 days active and passive repo rates. This represents the first hike since February 2016 and brings the reference rate back to where it was in Nov...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. The broad picture of a stalling of aggregate nominal investment under imp...

Inflation risk from rice policy?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Many economic watchers have raised concerns about recent increases in consumer prices. From below 2% in the 16 months to August 2016, the headline inflation rate climbed past 3% in February and March 2017, with the BSP expecting the uptrend to continue through 3Q17, when inflation is forecast to...

Last words before the referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2017 · 1 response

First, I’ll be a holding a conference call with Global Source Partners audience Wednesday afternoon 10 am U.S. Eastern Standard Time, I encourage all readers to participate to receive a broader update and commentary on today’s developments. (Pls consult our New York head office for details). We w...

Week of April 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017 · 2 responses

A shorter week in Brasília due to the Friday holiday. The Central Bank meets this week to set the benchmark interest rate (Selic); another reduction is expected. In the Lower House, the floor may vote on the Fiscal Recovery Plan for States. The rapporteur of Labor Reform should present his report...

More of political complications: big street demonstration on the CEU case
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Apr 2017

The biggest street demonstration since the Fidesz government started in 2010 took place in Budapest yesterday, with 50-80 thousand participants (depending which side you are asking). Demonstrators, mainly, but far not exclusively university students and other young intellectuals, protested a most...

Stronger Exchange Rate, Lower Inflation and Renewed Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

If Brazil had an economy open to trade and its firms were indebted in local currency, deprecation of the exchange rate during a recession would stimulate demand and expand GDP. But Brazil’s economy is closed to international trade, and its companies, besides being highly leveraged, have a large p...

The Slow Recovery of the Construction Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

Signs are slowly starting to appear that the country is emerging from the longest and deepest recession in the past 35 years. However, the recovery will be slow, and one of the main reasons for this forecast is the deleveraging process of firms and households. The civil construction sector is emb...

Head of Ukraine's Central bank resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2017

The Head of the National bank of Ukraine Valeria Hontareva resigns today. She did not mention who will be her successor. Observers mention Volodymyr Lavrenchuk (Chairman of the Board of Aval bank) and Roman Shpek (Head of Independent Bank Association of Ukraine) as the most probable candidates fo...

Monetary Policy Rate increase
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Apr 2017

A few days ago the Central Bank announced an increase of 25 basis points in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), from 5.50% to 5.75%. Likewise, it increased the rate for short-term deposits from 4.00% to 4.25% and that of repos from 7.00% to 7.25%. Although the increase was small, this is the second i...

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