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President Zuma's High Risk Road
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Earlier this evening, at around 19h00, President Zuma convened an emergency meeting of the ANC Top 6, he called a number of ministers to stand by too. This is the strongest sign so far that he may have made up his mind to take the high risk road after all. If he reshuffles, both Minister of Finan...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth and Stability Expected
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Guatemala experienced a year of adjustment in 2016, after the political turmoil of 2015. The new administration spent its first months negotiating a learning curve, given President Jimmy Morales’ lack of political experience. It was also a year of adjustment to a new political balance in Congres...

Economics: Wages Start Lagging Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Initial labor market data for 2017 reveals weakness in real wages, which fell 0.6% year over year in January 2017, an erosion that resulted primarily from an acceleration of inflation to 4.72% that same month. In this context of resurgent inflation, the 1,361 wage reviews conducted under federal ...

Politics: Death Spiral Raises Crime Alarm
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Public security in Mexico appears to have embarked on a downward spiral, including the murder of three journalists in less than a month and large-scale prison breaks in the past ten days, which played out against a resurgence of intentional homicides nationwide. There were 2,098 cases of murder l...

Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle Plan: His Plot Backfires big time
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Over the past 24 hours a ground swell of political pressures have targeted Zuma, piling focus on him and his allies and cronies so as to push him to back off. This morning, the SA Communist Party and Business Leadership SA , and many others including x-President Motlanthe have come out calling fo...

The Beast and Beauty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

The tale is a bizarre one. Barely nine months in office, both President Rodrigo Duterte and his deputy, Vice President Leni Robredo, are facing the prospect of impeachment. In the former case, the complaint filed before congress went on recess in mid-March sought to impeach the President for amon...

​Nation Security Council Meeting and Fool’s Gold
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

I know everyone is focused on the presidential referendum, but there is little new to report there. In my poll-of-polls the NO camp pulled ahead a smidgeon farther, thanks a new one by centre-left SONAR which gave it a 51-49% edge. I still maintain AKP will find a way to win with 55% probability....

President Zuma and Pravin Gordhan: Shifting the Risk Burden
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

President Zuma convened a meeting of his cabinet earlier this evening to discuss the sudden recall of Minister Gordhan forcing him to abort his no-deal roadshow in London. Tomorrow the cabinet will brief the nation on the outcome of cabinet deliberations. But it appears that the President's push ...

Liquidity Crunch and the Budget Reform Process
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Mar 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Early in the week of March 20 the Chinese financial system suffered the latest of a string of temporary liquidity shocks that sent short-term rates soaring and unleashed rumors of smaller banks unable to roll over liabilities that funded highly mism...

Government Seen as Dragging its Feet on Odebrecht Prosecutions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 29 Mar 2017

Corruption in general and the Odebrecht case in particular continue to dog both the ruling PLD and the political system. The image of Danilo Medina´s government has deteriorated, and recent events suggest that the top level of the PLD has begun to fracture. The justice system has been unable to c...

The MNB made a small step to move away from its expressed loosening bias
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

Yesterday's Monetary Council meeting did not bring about any dramatic policy change, just as generally expected. Yet there was change, if only a small one. Interest rates unsurprisingly remained untouched, and the Bank delivered its Q1 target of reducing the stock of 3-month deposits to HUF750bn....

President Zuma and The ANC Dynamics
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017 · 1 response

SA is gripped by rumours and speculations about President Zuma's imminent cabinet reshuffle. The focus centers on whether or not he will axe Pravin Gordhan as the Minister of Finance. The reshuffle is about much more than Minister of Finance, yet this is the critical pivot- certainly for the fina...

President Zuma Vs Minister Gordhan: The Mexican Standoff is about to End!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2017 · 3 responses

Over the past 24 hours, President Zuma has signalled his strongest message yet that he is ready to introduce his long -awaited cabinet reshuffle. In my earlier notes I had predicted that he would do so by March 3rd, or latest March 10th! He missed those deadlines, and he now has to catch up. The ...

Week of March 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2017

The government will announce budget cuts, and according to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, tax increases may also be announced. The Senate is expected to vote on the outsourcing proposal. The rapporteur of Pension Reform in the Lower House is finishing his report. Revenue and public accounts...

Transparency in Meeting the Primary Deficit Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2017

With the economy still in recession, it will not be easy to cut spending and increase taxes. But both of these actions will be necessary in 2017 to meet the primary deficit target. The lower projection for GDP growth and the frustrating results of some non-recurring revenues have reduced the expe...

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