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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation slows down in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2017 · 2 responses

We forecast a slowdown in the monthly inflation rate to 16 percent in March. However, the annual rate accelerates sharply to 592 percent (from 550 percent in February). Our March forecast reflects our assumption of a 28 percent decrease in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slight...

​Turkey’s spat with EU: How serious is it?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Living in Turkey is waking up to a new “crisis” each day. This week’s flavor is a big tiff with Netherlands, which started with the expulsion of the Minister for Family Affairs Mrs. Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya from the country because she was trying to hold an impromptu election rally in Rotterdam. Mi...

Intense Monetary Easing and Gradual Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Mar 2017 · 1 response

The recession is ending – GDP has almost stopped shrinking – and the steep drop in inflation has allowed an intense cycle of real interest rate easing. Although the outlook is for renewed growth, this will not happen immediately. Expansion in the first two quarters of 2017 will be small, leading ...

Week of March 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2017

The government holds the auctions for the airports of Florianópolis, Porto Alegre, Salvador and Fortaleza. The Senate may analyze the proposal on the repatriation of undeclared funds held by Brazilians abroad. Based on information from Odebrecht’s plea bargain deal, the Prosecutor General of the ...

Forceful Unblocking of Trading Routs to Donbas Started
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Mar 2017

The Secret Service of Ukraine and Special Forces of Police started forceful unblocking of trading routs to Donbas today, leaders of the blockade reported in social nets. At least one block-post had been dismantled. Secret Service officially confirmed arrest of 43 alleged ‘saboteurs’. Leaders of t...

Why Do We Maintain Our 0.5% Projection for Growth in 2017?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2017

For some time now we’ve insisted that economic recovery this year will be slow, and in addition to this the GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016 was greater than projected. With this, the negative carry-over to 2017 is slightly more than previously projected, reaching -1.1%. Were it not ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2017

Referendum polls don’t grant much joy to the YES camp. Bizarre events to stoke up conservative-nationalist votes are to be expected, while a cancellation of the referendum can’t be ruled out, either. As we write these lines, a Turkish minister was declared persona non grata in Netherlands, whi...

BJP's landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2017

The BJP witnessed a landslide victory in the biggest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (U.P). The results could help pave the way for a shift in Indian politics away from identity politics towards issues of governance. The state of Uttar Pradesh has primarily relied on caste and religious identity is...

Scandals and Accusations Everywhere
PERU · Report · 10 Mar 2017

The Odebrecht affair continues to stir havoc in politics and the economy. Besides the imprisonment of a former Alan Garcia administration vice minister, and the arrest warrant for ex-President Alejandro Toledo, new accusations have surfaced suggesting that ex-President Ollanta Humala’s wife Nadin...

Building Fiscal Credibility
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Mar 2017

As we leave behind the more leisurely summer months of January and February, economic and political activity returns to a more vertiginous path. President Macri’s Address to the Nation, at the opening session of Congress on March 1, and Treasury Minister Dujovne’s presentation of new quarterly fi...

Land reform on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled the third review for Ukraine for March 20th. No one expects surprises. A $1 billion loan is down the road. Now it’s a big question what should be done for next wire. In my opinion, the land market will be the main issue for fifth review. We see the ice was finall...

The IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine set for March 20
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled third review for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility program for March 20th reported Vlad Rashkovan Deputy Director of Ukraine in the IMF. Previously, on March 4th the IMF reported that staff-level agreement with Ukraine on third review was reached and appro...

Politics: Turning Point for the PRD, and the Rest of the Left
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2017

For almost three decades one party, the PRD, has been the almost exclusive expression of the electoral left in Mexico, but as the 2018 elections draw near, its fate is in question. Torn by factional strife since its inception, the party now faces its greatest challenge to date as it is being ecli...

Economics: Current Account Bump a One-Off
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2017

Banco de México recently published its balance of payments results for 2016, which showed a 27.9 billion dollar current account deficit, a result considerably less pronounced than that of 2015. Mexico was able to reduce its deficit thanks to less negative balances of services and non petroleum g...

Government Announces New Round of Infrastructure Concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2017

The government announced a new package of infrastructure concessions, totaling R$45 billion in investments. Most of these projects had been previously announced, like the renewal of railways and the privatization of BR 101 in Santa Catarina. With an ambitious schedule, the Investments Partners...

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