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Chilean Primaries
CHILE · Report · 01 Jul 2013

Chile’s first presidential primaries are over. For the first time in Chilean political history, presidential candidates from the two main coalitions were elected in a legally framed primary. In the center-left coalition, “Nueva Mayoria” (New Majority), former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet (...

Weekly Tracker: June 30-July 6
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe change our political base-case scenario that Gezi Parki and related protests would taper off during the summer. It is now more likely that they will be joined by Alevites and Kurds sooner than we anticipated. The Peace Process is being sabotaged by PKK, as Kurdish actors press...

Construction to the Rescue
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThough Q1 economic growth at 2.8% did not disappoint, now we must ask: how will growth unfold for the rest of 2013, and into 2014? Part of the answer lies in the only sector that overperformed in Q1: construction. Expanding 16.9% in Q1, construction has saved the day, and is posi...

Dilma Announces Pact to Create a Positive Agenda to End Protests
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2013

The wave of protests taking place in the country since June 13 changed the government's agenda. Yesterday, President Dilma Rousseff organized a meeting with representatives of the Movement Passe Livre (MPL or "Free Fare Movement") and with governors and mayors of capital cities.The initiative is ...

Wave of Protests Brings Political, Social and Economic Unrest
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThis paper examines different scenarios for the demonstrations currently taking place in Brazil. Demonstrations tend to lose strength over time without the participation of civil servants and private sector workers. The central government's response could prevent a further spread...

Beating Back Inflation
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive Summary On June 21, the government finally announced the increase of domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, a decision that had been in the works for months. The decision is crucial for lowering the government budget deficit and achieving a better balance of payments. The rise of th...

Stagflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryMunicipal elections have been set for 8 December 2013. Both the government and the opposition are framing the election as a referendum on Nicolás Maduro and his government. Elections will continue influencing government policy.Pdvsa president and Energy and Oil minister Rafael Ra...

Ecuador Renounces to ATPA
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Jun 2013

Minister of Industries and one of Correa’s right hand announced this morning that “Ecuador gives up unilaterally and irrevocably to the trade protection under the ATPA treaty”. It is difficult to assess this statement either as provocative or irrelevant. On one side the agreement would have expir...

Assuming Absolute Power
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe "steamroller" – as the new Congress is nicknamed – recently passed two key laws: the first granting the president absolute power over communication, the second appearing to ease mining concession terms for corporations. Now the president, through his delegate in the to-be-cre...

Richter Scale 6.5 Heads-Up
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2013

Capital Markets Board launched a sweeping probe of all brokers to see whether manipulative trades have taken place during the Gezi Park crash.  I talked to several people in the financial community and this is true. CMP even asked for private e-mails and phone records as well as bank account nrs ...

Credit Remains Weak
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2013

The expansion of bank loans continues to be lethargic. Despite the decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points in the household debt service level since the July 2012, the current level remains high, sustaining the high default rate and deterring private banks from expanding credit. The only dynamism...

Week of June 25: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2013

President Dilma Rousseff Meets With Governors To Discuss The Distribution Of Oil Royalties For Education, Improvements In Public Services And An Analysis Of The Protests Throughout The Country.New Demonstrations Are Expected To Take Place This Week. The New Minister Of The Federal Supreme Court, ...

Not Exports, But Inflows
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2013

Defying expectations, export growth soared 18% in Q1, instead of the anticipated 10%. Yet a month later, those numbers had plunged, with exports rising just 1% in May. Many analysts now think the big uptick was in fact the result of a disguised money inflow, attracted by speculation on interes...

Alert: Currency Risk Ahead
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Jun 2013

Executive Summary Ukraine is facing a new challenge: QE3 tapering. The end of the cheap money era will change a lot for the economy.Over the past year, only the abundant international liquidity has propped up the hryvnia and, by extension, economic growth.The outflow of money from emerging market...

Alevi’s Death Infuriates Gezi Parki People
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2013

Strong signs that AKP is preparing reform packages for Alevites and Kurds. Budget aid will be provided to Alevite temples (Cemevi) and pastors. For Kurds, Kurdish language education will be permitted in private schools, with a voucher type of system. Will the minorities settle for that little?  I...

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