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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Two signs of sanity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 20, after four weeks of agonizing negotiations, the opposition agreed on a single candidate supported by all the Unitary Platform (PUD) parties one day before the deadline for modifying endorsements to be visible on the ballot. The candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, registered by PUD...

Inflation expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Apr 2024

Inflation in March (0.6% m/m 2.7% y/y, following 2.5% last month) was slightly above expectations of 0.5% on average. Core inflation inched up to 2.3% y/y from 2.2% last month but this is due to higher taxation on cigarettes, which contributed 0.17% to the CPI. Core excluding government measure r...

Armenia hands over villages to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 19 Armenia ceded the land to its neighbor as part of a border demarcation agreement. The four villages were part of Azerbaijan in the Soviet era. This has caused protests in Armenia, where some people believe the government is being feeble and cowardly. Some say Prime Minister Pashinyan ...

Many questions, no answers
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2024

While President Erdogan promised change after the defeat of the AKP-MHP alliance, so far, he has neither taken any steps, nor has he provided any hints about new policies, save in economics. Pro-AKP press claims he is biding his time, but the first essay in the politics section concludes the Pres...

Russia slams US aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024

On April 20 the US House of Representatives passed a military aid package for the 3 countries. This includes USD 61 billion for Ukraine. The aid packages needs to pass the Senate, which is almost certain to happen. Biden has vowed to sign the bill as soon as it is passed. The bill has been delaye...

GL 44a: Case-by-case flexibility, with opacity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024

General License 44a (GL 44a), dated April 17, 2024, requires that oil and gas activities not expressly subject to General Licenses 41 (Chevron) and 8m (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford) be granted special licenses by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Co...

GULF WEEKLY: Floods batter Gulf, Israel-Iran clash may be over, Microsoft invests $1.5bn in G42, Kuwait has a new PM
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Iran and Israel exchanged carefully calibrated attacks and have hopefully come to a pause. *Oil prices briefly spiked today on the Israeli attack but settled after more details emerged. *The US vetoed Palestinian UN member...

Tension between the government and Congress increases, the government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation next week, and Congress should analyze presidential vetoes next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2024

This week was tumultuous from a political point of view. The new conflicts between the government and Congress are worrisome. In the House, the tension is between the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Alexandre Padilha. In ot...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...

Power supply dangerously close to critical condition
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024 · 2 responses

The Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) issues on a regular basis a reference daily path for the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level. This path is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee that power supply meets demand; should the aggregate level fall...

Georgians protest against foreign agents' bill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024

On April 17 thousands of people demonstrated near parliament. They want the government to drop the foreign agents' bill. Western governments and Georgians civil society have said that it will have a chilling effect on dissidents and human rights. Critics say the bill is based on its Russian equiv...

The Senate approved the update to the Income Tax exemption range, Minister Haddad called for an international tax on the rich, and the São Paulo City Council approved the bill that privatizes Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2024

Yesterday the Senate approved, in a symbolic vote, the Executive Office’s bill that expands the Income Tax exemption range to a monthly income of up to two minimum wages (R$2,824). In the United States, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government will propose a declaration on intern...

The end of interest rate cuts is near
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2024

Our new quarterly forecast changes moderately from the previous one, issued in January. We still expect considerable economic recovery in 2024, but we scaled back our GDP forecast given the weakness of European industry, especially car manufacturing, and the longer-than-expected time required for...

Russian peacekeepers will withdraw from Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

On April 17 Putin's spokesman made the announcement. After the 2020 war Russia mediated peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The peace agreement provided for 1,500 Russian troops to keep the peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but was then ethnically almost exclusively A...

Requiem for the Fiscal Framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2024

The recently proposed Budget Directives Law (LDO) revealed, intentionally or not, the limits of the so-called New Fiscal Framework. This is not due to either of the primary result for 2024 (kept at the same level suggested by the bimonthly revision of March) or even the reduction of the primary s...

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