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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Guatemala: Jimmy Morales elected president
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Jimmy Morales, of the right wing party PCN-Nación, won yesterday´s second round presidential election against Sandra Torres, of the center-left party UNE. Although the total turnout was low (only 54% of people registered went to vote), Morales won by a wide margin (69% to 31%). He will be sworn i...

El Salvador: Slower and Slower
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Sep 2015

Growth in El Salvador continues to be sluggish, though there are also glimmers of recovery. Consumer prices have fallen in annualized terms for the eight months to August, leaving prices down 2%. The fiscal deficit problem persists, and political polarization has only hampered efforts to forge co...

Guatemala: High turnout but heading for a runoff
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Sep 2015

There was a high turnout in yesterday´s general elections. According to preliminary results, the turnout was slightly above 70% of registered voters, a figure relatively high given the political situation of the last five months, which clouded the electoral campaign, and also the call for "no vot...

Guatemala: President Pérez resigns
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Sep 2015

After all doors closed, President Otto Pérez Molina today submitted his resignation to Congress.On Tuesday, September 1, Congress stripped Pérez's immunity by an almost unanimous decision (125 votes in favor), including several congressmen from his own party. On Wednesday, September 2, the Consti...

Guatemala: Corruption Scandals Dampen Outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Executive Summary Political developments linked to Guatemala’s corruption scandals have dampened the national economic outlook. But the turmoil has not so far damaged financial stability, which been powerfully resilient.The dollar is stable in the 7.60-7.70 quetzal range; the Bank of Guatemala’s ...

Guatemala: Will Pérez stay in power?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Aug 2015

With less than 15 days before the September 6th presidential election, the political situation in Guatemala continues to deteriorate.Pressure for President Otto Pérez to resign increased Friday 21st, after the Attorney General, Thelma Aldana, and the International Commission Against Corruption Im...

Costa Rica: The Central Bank revised its Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced yesterday its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2015-2016, which was originally published in late January. There are no major changes in the Bank´s policy orientation, but there is a revision in the forecast of the macro-variables for...

Costa Rica: Fiscal Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for the next 17 months is for modest growth, and relative stability. But fiscal vulnerability will present challenges for controlling inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate. By yearend, we expect to see modest economic growth (2.3% y/y); low h...

EL SALVADOR: President Earns Low Marks for His First Year
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We give El Salvador’s new presidential administration a low grade for its first year in office. Growth is still sluggish, and other troubles persist, such as uncontrolled public debt. The adverse business climate is reflected in low private investment, driven by the government’s...

GUATEMALA: Upset Ahead?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 May 2015

Executive SummaryGuatemalan political turmoil is so acute that some local analysts doubt that President Otto Pérez Molina will make it to the end of his term.On the heels of the resignation of Vice President Roxana Baldetti over the corruption scandal in the Tax Administration Office, some civic ...

EL SALVADOR: Still All About Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The outlook for El Salvador´s economy is still bleak, despite minor improvements in certain variables amid favorable external conditions.Real GDP is expected to grow 2.3%-2.5% in 2015 and 2016. That’s a bit of an improvement over previous years, but insufficient to significantly...

GUATEMALA: LIDER’S Baldizon Favored in September Race
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We expect economic calm in Guatemala this year, with a growth forecast of about 4%, and inflation low, at about 3.5%. External accounts will benefit from oil price decline and the increase in rates of private remittances, and the current account deficit will decline.Public finan...

Costa Rica: More Robust, Yet More Vulnerable
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Economic performance is expected to improve slightly in 2015, compared to previous expectations, and, in some respects, compared to 2014. Despite mixed fiscal signals from the government, we don’t expect turbulent storms this year. External conditions are the main reason: strong...

COSTA RICA: Hello Managed Floating; Good Bye Currency Bands
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Feb 2015

The Central Bank announced last Saturday the elimination of the currency band and the start of a new exchange rate regime characterized by a managed float. The new system, which has been the de facto regime over the past 12 months, implies the Central Bank´s active participation in the market to ...

A Boost from Abroad
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The global economy will boost Central American economies this year.This is, first, because of the expected behavior of the U.S. economy, the most important export market for the region, and the main source of private remittances for El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The secon...

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