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Economics: Weakening of development banks poses risks for public finance and the banking system
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2022

Mexico’s development banks are of particular interest in what is unquestionably a highly complicated economic and financial panorama. At the end of 2021, total development bank loan portfolios totaled 1.05 trillion pesos, in real terms, 12.5% below levels of December 2018. Between 2018 and 2021 ...

Politics: AMLO´s visit to Washington has little to show
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2022

When President López Obrador announced plans for an official work trip to Washington after he shunned President Biden’s Summit of the Americas, it wasn’t immediately clear exactly what officials in both countries expected to accomplish. No specific agenda was ever announced, and a US official was...

Politics: One year on, the presidential succession process heats up
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Ever since AMLO got the ball rolling on the incumbent party’s presidential succession efforts over a year ago by beginning to signal his preferred nominees, the 4T camp has been gearing up for the battle it will face two years from now. Although any campaigning for 2024 nominations is legally pro...

Economics: Some claims of significant job growth overlook important points of weakness
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jul 2022

The most recent labor sector indicators reveal continuing weakness in major segments of the Mexican economy even as some analysts and officials have argued that a frank recovery in employment is underway. While growth trends can be seen in indicators of the formal sector’s employment, average wag...

Economics: June data provides another mixed portrait closely in line with that of the previous month
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2022

Economic data released in June once again showed increased activity, although with markedly uneven results depending on the sector or branch in question. At the same time, public finance evolved relatively favorably in several revenue categories, and public spending remained stable and contained,...

Politics: New poll shows minor shifts in voter opinions, concerns and preferences
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2022

The latest GEA-ISA poll, conducted in mid-June, shows some minor shifts in voter perceptions of the state of the country, President Lopez Obrador’s approval levels, and support for the country’s different political parties and coalitions with an eye toward the 2024 presidential elections. Given w...

Economics: Global context complicates the Mexican economic outlook
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2022

As the international economic scenario continues to deteriorate and multilateral institutions and analysts alike scale back their growth estimates, we need to assess the extent to which a weaker economic outlook abroad, especially in the United States, is likely to affect Mexico. More specificall...

Politics: High-profile killings spotlight Mexico’s worsening public security crisis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The country’s public security crisis is showing no signs of abating. The figures are alarming indeed, at around 3,000 murders, 1,500 missing persons and 80 femicides per month. Through the 41 months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the number of intentional homicides rea...

Economics: Public finance doing relatively well but some points could portend problems to come
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2022

Public finances for the first four months of 2022 showed a relatively favorable evolution in terms of growth in revenue and contained public spending. However, this performance may not be sustainable if we consider the growth trend in the public debt. The improvement in public sector revenue w...

Politics: AMLO’s absence from Summit of the Americas highlights ongoing tensions with Washington
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2022

AMLO’s decision to not attend the Summit of the Americas is just his administration’s latest affront to U.S. President Joe Biden. Based on the argument that no countries should be excluded–specifically, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua–the Mexican president’s absence reduced the importance and impa...

Politics: Morena wins 4 of 6 governors’ races, albeit under complicating circumstances
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2022

When the dust settled on June 5, in the six state gubernatorial races up for grabs, Morena won four of the races. This brings the number of the country’s 32 states governed by the party to 20 (22 including its allies). Predictably, AMLO’s party was awash in triumphalism. But the victories occurre...

Economics: The export sector is driving Mexico's economic recovery
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2022

The export sector has been the only one to maintain considerable growth and momentum in the past few years. Indeed, its growth has triggered the (still insufficient) recovery of the Mexican economy. Exports of agricultural and food products maintained their growth in the most complicated months o...

Economics: Results in May point to risks of further deceleration
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2022

Economic indicators published in May once again showed increased activity, although with markedly uneven results depending on the sector or branch in question. Manufacturing, the only GDP component to boast a significant recovery so far, recorded the strongest expansion of any industrial componen...

Politics: June 2022 gubernatorial election results
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2022

Morena carried four of the six states that held gubernatorial elections this past Sunday (Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas), while the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance held on to the governorships in Durango and Aguascalientes. As we have stated, a Morena victory in four states in these elections...

Politics: PRI at the crossroads on the difficult path to the 2024 elections
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2022

The PRI is in a difficult position inside the chain of the opposition coalition that also includes the PAN and the PRD, suffering from a poor public image and wracked by internal differences, chief among them how to relate to President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s government. The opening shot in...

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