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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Risks Prompt Lower Growth Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2015

The slowdown of crude output, and loss of momentum in the construction sector, led to weak industrial activity data for June (when it was up just 1.4% y/y), amid general financial uncertainty. Industrial results plunged in Q2, to almost half their Q1 growth rate. The peso has lost more than 25...

Politics: Crime on the Rise in Capital
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Executive Summary The analyses of public security issues GEA conducts for Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics are generally made of nationwide crime data, but this time we are narrowing our focus to the Federal District because of its economic and political weight, its record in building a successful ...

Economics: New China Model’s Mexico Effect
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

To the already extensive list of negative factors of international origin adversely affecting the Mexican economy over the past ten months (plunging prices for oil and other locally produced commodities, uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s long awaited interest rate liftoff,...

Politics: Citizenry’s Reality Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2015

The citizenry’s alienation from politics, lack of confidence in parties, and impression that electoral democracy has done little or nothing to improve wellbeing is nothing new or uniquely Mexican, but there has been a special deepening of that crisis of representativeness over the past year. The ...

Economics: FX Conundrum Ahead of Rate Liftoff
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2015

Mexico’s exchange rate has consistently depreciated since the end of the third quarter of 2014, and began to accelerate its climb by last February in a move that took the 48-hour FIX exchange rate from 15.24/USD in March to 15.94 in July and an average of 16.24 pesos per dollar so far in the mont...

Economics: Middle Class Sustains Consumption
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2015

Many media outlets have dedicated considerable attention in recent weeks to indicators of Mexico’s middle class in Mexico as part of the broader discussion of recent data confirming a considerable rise in poverty. Based on the information published by the National Council for the Evaluation of...

Politics: Key Preliminaries Ahead of 2018 Race
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2015

The 2018 campaign is now underway. The country’s three main parties are electing new leaderships with an eye toward the next presidential elections. By mid late last week it became obvious that Manlio Fabio Beltrones would face no opposition in his bid to become the next chairman of the govern...

Poverty Rises as Economy Slows
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2015

The news isn’t all bad: Consumer confidence has rebounded, the stores are reporting increased sales, and industry continues to hire. But the economy continues to slow, recent indicators show. And on balance, the latest news has been negative. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) showed activity slippi...

Economics: Programs Fail to Avert Poverty Rise
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week the National Council for the Evaluation of Public Policy (Coneval) released new poverty data for Mexico based on information contained in the National Statistics Office’s National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014 (ENIGH 2014), which we analyzed in last ...

Politics: Death Knell of CNTE Power in Oaxaca
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week Oaxacan state officials announced they were eliminating the Oaxaca State Public Education Institute (IEEPO) and creating a new body to manage public education. This is a major blow to the power of Local 22 of the National Teachers Union (SNTE), until now the strongest ...

Politics: An Unforgivable Mistake
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive Summary When Mexico’s most famous drug kingpin and high-security prisoner broke out of the country’s top maximum security facility, it was just the latest example of how much a culture of government corruption and official indifference has left the entire criminal justice system vulnera...

Economics: Household Income and Spending
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week’s report on the National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014, which tracks general totals as well as the origin and distribution of such income and spending, showed that current monetary incomes fell 3.1% including transfers, and 0.9% without transfers. In...

Politics: Talk but No Action on Crime and Graft
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The governing Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) has interpreted its first place finish in last month’s congressional elections as a mandate for pursuing its pre-existing political agenda and a public endorsement of the performance of President Enrique Peña Nieto. In doing ...

Economics: Growth or Stability Dilemma
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The most recent information regarding the evolution of public finance during 2015 (at the end of May) allows us to conclude that officials will have a complicated time administering it for the remainder of the year. Mexico continues to register growing shortfalls in non petroleu...

Signs of Trouble, Despite Growth
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Economic activity continues to grow in 2015. During Q1, aggregate supply and demand of goods and services grew by a real 3.5% from Q1 2014. GDP expanded by 2.5% y/y, but just 0.4% q/q, seasonally adjusted, extending the flattening trend experienced since early 2013. The prospect...

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