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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The high cost of political survival
PERU · Report · 25 Jan 2018

This administration has been thrust into permanent conflict, as its lack of a significant presence in Congress is forcing it to wrestle with a huge opposition. Though a motion to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on the grounds of “permanent moral incapacity” failed, due to a fracture withi...

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has pardoned ex-president Fujimori
PERU · In Brief · 24 Dec 2017 · 1 response

This afternoon after a special cabinet meeting PPK granted a humanitarian pardon to ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Yesterday Fujimori was hurriedly taken to a local clinic because of an arrhythmia. In the highly polarized political situation Peru is undergoing, it is expected that the anti-Fujimo...

This Thursday will seal Kuczynski's fate
PERU · In Brief · 19 Dec 2017

Congress will receive President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on Thursday 21st to listen his defense on the serious allegations that led to the approval of a vacancy motion on grounds of moral incapacity. Kuczynski is accused of lying about consulting work done for the Brazilian construction firm Odebrec...

President Kuczynski in his worst hour
PERU · In Brief · 15 Dec 2017

The worst scenario envisaged in our Report of four days ago appears to be unfolding at the moment, with allegations that President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski provided consulting services to the Brazilian firm Odebrecht through First Capital, a firm that belongs to him. These allegations have been stro...

Economic recovery and political conflict
PERU · Report · 11 Dec 2017

While the economy is showing clear signs of improvement, the political realm is riven by strife. Corruption allegations linked to Brazilian construction firms’ scandals seem to be extending to all ambits of government. Still-unclear information from Brazil suggests that Keiko Fujimori’s 2011 pres...

The rebound has begun
PERU · Forecast · 16 Nov 2017

Our latest base scenario is more upbeat. It expects the global economy to grow faster than 3.5% in coming years; for domestic conflicts to work themselves out; and for a more robust than expected domestic economic rebound from the damage caused by the El Niño and the Odebrecht shocks. Signific...

A respite after the storm
PERU · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Pressure on Education Minister Marilu Martens to resign, in the wake of a protracted teachers’ strike, ended up leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Fernando Zavala and his entire cabinet, after Zavala’s call for a vote of confidence over the issue backfired. Within 48 hours, President Pe...

Prime Minister Fernando Zavala and the entire Cabinet forced to resign
PERU · In Brief · 15 Sep 2017

After Minister of Education Marilu Martens was summoned to Congress for an impeachment procedure (a process that can or not result in a censure vote), after a six week teachers’ strike, the Fuerza Popular party that commands an absolute majority announced its intention to sack her through a censu...

Politics Takes to the Streets
PERU · Report · 12 Sep 2017

Recent political developments have proven challenging for the Kuczynski administration. Though its relations with Congress calmed in August, a real commitment to working on an even minimal common reform agenda seems lacking. There’s general impression of a weak government unable to administer rou...

Power Game Affecting Recovery
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2017

One might have thought that two parties with similar market-friendly views could work harmoniously, and create a fertile environment for reforms to facilitate an eventual government for Keiko Fujimori in the 2021 elections. Instead, this has been a year of acrimonious actions and accusations, and...

Tough Road for a Rebound
PERU · Forecast · 30 Jun 2017

The surprising severity of the El Niño phenomenon, and the worsening relations between Congress and the Executive branch, have moved us to revise our 2017 growth estimate. Still, these negative events are assumed to be improving with time, and the efforts for reconstruction after the climatic dis...

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign.
PERU · In Brief · 21 Jun 2017

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign after Congress denied him a confidence vote he formally requested. His resignation comes as part of the fallout concerning the government efforts to revive the proposed airport project at Chinchero, Cuzco. The construction and operation PPP project was ...

Political Quarrels, A Hurdle for Economic Recovery
PERU · Report · 24 May 2017

The government has continued to enjoy heightened popularity over its handling of the El Niño emergency, though the president’s approval rating in the north, where most disasters occurred, has fallen. We think it could fall further if reconstruction action and aid doesn’t start fast. Congress i...

Time for a Strong Macro Stimulus
PERU · In Brief · 23 Apr 2017

After a disappointing GDP growth in February (0.7% y/y), leading indicators suggest a much worse performance for March – the monthly impact of El Niño phenomenon at its peak. A negative growth rate for that month is expected, and we would not be surprised to see GDP dropping by as much as 1% y/y ...

When It Rains, It Pours
PERU · Report · 04 Apr 2017

Natural disasters, in the form of excessive rain and mudslides, have now edged out the corruption scandals involving Brazilian companies, to take center stage in the national psyche. As many as 1 million people may be affected by the El Niño floods, 15% of them severely. The government believes t...

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