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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2016

The business community finally got a preview of what presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte’s economic program would be. In a press conference late today, former agriculture secretary Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez and a member of Mr. Duterte’s transition team, presented a concise 8-point economic agend...

​Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 May 2016

It is over but for the full counting. With 45% of the votes in, Mayor Duterte is now ahead 2:1. Most observers are just happy that the elections were peaceful and clean and that the mayor will secure a clear mandate at 40%. This is around the same as President Aquino's in 2010 that helped him gov...

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

More people now believe that the presidency is his to lose. Latest polls show the tough-talking mayor from the south pulling further away from the pack, scoring 9 to 12 points ahead of the second-ranked. By itself, the emergence of a frontrunner is a good thing as it removes temptations to cheat ...

Election-proof?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Apr 2016

The Philippine economy continued to chug along in 1Q16 as internal growth drivers benefited from low oil prices and election spending, with remittance inflows remarkably resilient and further amplified by a weaker peso. Looking at the next 12 to 18 months, the crucial question for the local econ...

A setback for the PPP program
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Mar 2016

Just weeks after announcing that it will “gift wrap” $6.64 billion worth of infrastructure projects for the next administration by bidding out 10 to 11 public private partnership (PPP) projects before end-June, government suffered a major setback today as no bidders showed up for the auction of t...

Grace Poe allowed to run
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2016

In a 9-6 decision, the Supreme Court today ruled that Senator Grace Poe can run for the Presidency, reversing the Commission on Elections' earlier decision to disqualify her. The bets are that this decision, which lifts the cloud of uncertainty surrounding her eligibility, will boost her ranking ...

Simian Flu
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Feb 2016

The Year of the Monkey finds the world in poor spirits, one eye monitoring the vital signs of its weaker members, the other eye scanning for symptoms of compromised immune systems elsewhere. While the Philippines is not resistant to the malady’s spread, the economy has internal sources of growth ...

GDP in line with expectations
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2016

GDP grew by 6.3% in 4Q15, bringing the full year average to 5.8%, a notch above our 5.7% forecast for 2015. We note the following demand-side developments: 1. Growth in household consumption accelerated to 6.4% as the peso’s depreciation made up for the slower dollar remittances (1.7% vs 5.4% ave...

Remittance risks from the Middle East
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Jan 2016

As the world trains its eyes on the collapsing diplomatic relations in the Middle East, the Philippines is understandably concerned about the fate of its 2.5 million overseas workers in the region, a large number of whom are based in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Filipinos who are either doi...

A tight race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2015

In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay...

Thinking about fiscal risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Congress has passed a bill granting a P2,000 across-the-board increase in the minimum monthly pension received by members of the Social Security System (SSS). The proposal has been sent to Malacanang and is now reportedly awaiting the President's signature. We gathered from concerned officials th...

The disqualification of Senator Poe
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Dec 2015

"Increased uncertainty" is becoming a common refrain among political analysts these days. We are hearing it again following a disqualification decision Tuesday against Senator Grace Poe by a 3-member division of the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The ruling is on one of four disqualification ...

GDP at 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Nov 2015

The economy’s 3Q15 performance, with growth accelerating to 6% on strong domestic demand, was generally in line with what we expected. The main source of higher growth last quarter was government spending. Public consumption rose 17% and public construction jumped 41%. Improved government expendi...

Game changer?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Nov 2015

After hemming and hawing for months, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte finally announced over the weekend that he will run for the presidency. Surprisingly, he cited the favorable ruling of the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) on the issue of Senator Grace Poe's citizenship as the reason for his decision. The...

Holding Pattern
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 04 Nov 2015

Anyone tracking the Philippine economy would by now have his eyes on May 9, 2016.More than who will be the next president, the key question for Election Day 2016 is, will he or she have a clear mandate that is beyond challenge?Also, while we expect to see general commitment to policy continuity w...

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