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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Suspense Continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 May 2018

After a high level meeting of economy ministers and bureaucrats held at the Presidential palace this afternoon, the President's office issued a statement, which we offer a quick and dirty translation below to help you to draw your own conclusions. (The original statement in TR can be accessed her...

A battle of alliances
TURKEY · Report · 06 May 2018

With three leading opposition parties forging an electoral alliance, general elections turn into a proportional representation race, where AKP-MHP’s advantages are significantly eroded. A few polls that collect data on alliance basis suggest the lead of AKP-MHP has narrowed or might have even dis...

​Core Inflation Back Above 12%
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 May 2018

April consumer price inflation came in at a higher than expected 1.9% (consensus, us included: 1.6%), even though we had noted that the risks would be on the upside, on the back of recent lira weakness -- with the lira having weakened by over 4% in April against the basket, atop a near-3% weakeni...

On the CBRT's Inflation Report
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2018

The CBRT has released this year's second Inflation Report today. Here are some highlights:The 2018 year-end inflation forecast was revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 8.4% (midpoint of a range between 7.2% and 9.6%) from 7.9% previously, while the 2019 year-end forecast was kept at 6.5% (midpoi...

On a knife-edge till March 2019
TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2018

This month’s report arrives in your inboxes in a Q&A format once again, allowing us to address a myriad of questions that we receive from our esteemed colleagues and clients, in the most effective way. With Gul declining to enter the race, Erdogan remains our favorite to clinch the Presidency,...

Turkey Conference Call: Snap Elections: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly and Everything in Between
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2018

Will the early election in Turkey bring longer-term stability to the markets? What are the implications of an early consolidation of power by President Erdogan? A conference call featuring our Istanbul-based Local Partners, Atilla Yesilada and Murat Ucer, "Turkey's Snap Elections: The Good, the B...

MPC: Positive Surprise, Fuzzy Statement
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee hiked the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by a somewhat higher than expected 75 bps, to 13.5%, leaving all other rates unchanged (see chart). Expectations were a bit all over the place before the meeting, but they had more or less (including our own, broadly speakin...

​The dawn is pregnant with surprises
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2018 · 1 response

A blizzard of alliance diplomacy among three opposition parties, which is already yielding fruit, brought to mind the famous phrase in the title, uttered by former PM and President Demirel. “The pregnancy” period may last until the weekend and might (not my most likely scenario) result in former ...

Sixty days of nail-biting suspense
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2018

Our coverage of early elections scene starts by answering FAQs, such as whether Gul will run, the Good Party will be allowed to contest the race, and the mechanics of large-scale fraud. We then move on to the polls, which reveal AKP-MHP clinging to a narrowing lead in the parliamentary elections....

​Snap elections: Good for Turkey, good for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Erdogan-Bahceli meeting yielded snap elections, and I really mean “snap” elections, because the proposed date was brought forward from 26 August to 24 June. Early elections are good for Erdogan and Turkey, because both could have suffered a road accident, had they been delayed to 2019. My poll-of...

​Crucial summit between Erdogan and Bahceli scheduled for Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

I promised to write a market brief about early elections, but instead of responding to Bahceli’s call, Erdogan invited him for a summit at 13:30 on Wednesday. I still believe the leaders will agree on early elections, but want to keep my powder dry until then. I also insist that a decision for sn...

​HEADS UP: Bahceli calls for early elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018

MHP leader and AKP’s election ally Mr. Bahceli just called for early elections on 26th of August. First reaction from experts:Probably he had consulted AKP before talking to his parliamentary caucus about this. The announcement is market negative but I believe barring major TL-related accidents, ...

Quo Vadis, Turkey?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Apr 2018

The Turkish economy closed 2017 with turbo-charged growth -- of 7.4%, and heightened vulnerabilities as a result, with inflation running at double digits and the current account deficit at a disconcerting 5.6% of GDP. Going forward, the government has one priority in mind, which is to sustain thi...

At the doors of purgatory
TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2018

Defining moments in Turko-American relationship are approaching fast, as an evangelical protestant pastor, Mr. Brunson, lines up for trial, where a guilty sentence could seriously upset the Congress, and even the White House. The trial will come on the heels of the sentencing of convicted Iran sa...

Core Inflation Drops, Likely Temporarily
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2018

Consumer prices rose by 1% in March, exactly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI rate easing slightly -- basically due to rounding -- to 10.2%, from 10.3% in February. Producer prices rose sharply however, to 14.3% from 13.7%, on the back of rising energy prices, suggesting that cost...

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