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Turkey Conference Call: Turkey in Syria: Understanding the bigger picture
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2018

Afrin is just the start of Turkey's Syria ordeal. Why is Turkey in Afrin and what are the risks? How does "Operation Olive Branch" increase the potential for a US-Turkey clash, and what are the implications for the markets?

Trump-Erdogan phone summit: Lost in translation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces, aided by Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades are gradually encircling the Kurdish-majority Afrin province of Syria in Northwest. Clashes are getting fierce by the day with casualties mounting on both sides. Afrin invasion is only the beginning of Turkey’s long and arduous adventure in...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2018

On Saturday evening, the Turkish government heralded the commencement of Operation Olive Branch to root out PYD-YPG and remaining ISIS elements out of Northwest Syrian canton of Afrin. It will not be easy to achieve that objective, considering how well-prepared and committed the pro-PKK Kurdish m...

MPC: No action, somewhat more hawkish
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2018

​In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not change any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, keeping the Late Liquidity Window lending rate at 12.75%, one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respect...

Erdogan serious about entering Afrin
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2018

President Erdogan proclaimed in the most emphatic tones used heretofore that a military operation could commence to purge Kurdish-held Afrin canton and Manbij district of Syria from terror “any minute”. Indeed, Turkish press reports massive force build-up at the Afrin border, as well as detailed ...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2018

Turkey’s relations with the U.S. took another turn for the worse, as Washington hinted at its intention to help PYD-YPG build a “state” in North-East Syria. President Erdogan threatened military retaliation in “one week”. Syria is also poisoning Turkey’s budding romance with Russia and Iran, as A...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2018

After a jury found former Halk Bank EVP Hakan Atilla guilty of 5 charges, fears of wide-spread fines or sanctions on Turkish banks rose. Ankara, too, seems aware of the danger, reportedly initiating backchannel talks with Washington D.C. to mitigate the damage.The White House is likely to present...

Hakan Atilla found guilty, worst-case scenarios operative
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2018

A jury found a former VP of state-owned lender Halkbank, Mr. Hakan Atilla, guilty on 5 charges, including bank fraud and conspiracy to violate U.S. sanctions law. Judge Richard Berman scheduled Atilla to be sentenced on April 11. He may face 30 years in prison, or more. His lawyers will appeal th...

There is no free lunch, Q.E.D.
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2018

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 0.7% in December, but thanks to base effects (e.g., food), the 12-month rate has eased to 11.9%, from 13% in November. Likewise, producer prices eased to 15.5% in December from 17.3% in November but needless to say, headline inflation remains highly ...

From rabbits, back to elephants
TURKEY · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017

The year will close with a stellar growth rate, at around 6.5% we now estimate, thanks to massive stimulus measures and to a lesser extent growth in net exports. But macro imbalances have worsened as well, with inflation likely to end the year at around 11.5%, up from 8.5% at end-2016, and the cu...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 17 Dec 2017

This week’s Update covers politics only, where our political analyst shares his preliminary forecasts for the next six months ahead of our upcoming Quarterly Report, which we plan to issue later next week. Meanwhile, for a quick assessment of the recent GDP and BOP releases, as well as our though...

MPC tries to escape with the minimum
TURKEY · Report · 14 Dec 2017

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) lending rate by a lower than expected 50 basis points (bps) to 12.75% from 12.25%. As broadly expected, the MPC left all other interest rates unchanged (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at...

Q3 GDP and October BOP
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2017

Here are some quick reactions on today’s two important data releases, which we shall follow up in the coming days and reports, with more analysis/thoughts. GDP growth surprised on the upside in Q3, coming in at a whopping (unadjusted) 11.1%, y/y and 9.6% (working day-adjusted), higher than the...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2017

We rate political risk in Turkey as high, but can’t generate a prediction regarding its direction. Much will depend on the outcome of the Hakan Atilla Iran sanctions trial. In case of a guilty verdict (our likely scenario), Ankara will have to choose between a political settlement and defiance. A...

Double-Digit Inflation, Our New Reality
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2017

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 1.5% in November (versus consensus and roughly our forecasts of around 1.1%), which raised the 12-month rate sharply higher to 13%, up from 11.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a hefty 2% in the month, with the 12-month PPI rate staying broadly un...

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