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​Reconstructing the Davutoglu-Kilicdaroglu summit
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2015

After 8 days in the remote Aegean island of Imroz (Gokceada), which I highly recommend to those wishing to become monks or goat herders, I'm back in action and begin work by sharing with my Asian and early-bird European readers my first theories about the background of the 4.5 hour long Davutoglu...

On Reelections, Rabbits and Ratings
TURKEY · Report · 06 Aug 2015

Markets seem focused on three issues/questions at the moment: What is the latest on the coalition vs. reelection odds, given the cacophony of announcements coming out of Ankara? What should we exactly make out of the CBRT Governor Basci’s latest announcement of simplifying the monetar...

Inflation Eases, But Best Is Likely Over
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2015

Consumer price inflation moved little in July (0.1%), m/m, broadly in line with the consensus. This led to another easing in the 12-month rate to 6.8%, from 7.2% in June. Food price inflation stayed broadly unchanged at some 9.3%, y/y, while underlying inflation dynamics finally showed some moder...

Desperate For A Coalition
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary With coalition talks proceeding very slowly, the ISIS/PKK threats on the rise and emerging markets under pressure, macro visibility has never been this poor. Our political baseline is reelections now (60% probability), even though the political landscape is unlikely to change mu...

Back to Orthodoxy, Timidly, Obscurely
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2015

The CBRT Governor Erdem Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today.There were no significant revisions to inflation forecasts with the (midpoint) of end-2015 forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 6.9% (from 6.8% earlier), and the end-2016 forecast kept unchanged at 5.5% as before. Go...

​Chief Prosecutor initiates investigation into HDP
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2015

After Erdogan accused the pro-Kurdish rights party HDP of being the accomplice of PKK and reiterated that the Kurdish Peace is over, Turkey’s Chief Prosecutor didn’t waste time leaking it to the press that his office began collecting evidence with a view on pressing charges against HDP for aiding...

Weekly Tracker: July 26-August 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2015

Executive Summary It has been a week of shocking developments in Turkish politics. After the Suruc bombing, Ankara declared war on ISIS, granting access to Coalition Air Forces in all of its airbases. As we write the Weekly Tracker (in the early morning hours), the Turkish Air Force was bombing I...

Twin terror may spell reelections
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2015

Twin terror may spell reelections Turkey suddenly became the target of PKK and ISIS, as the former escalated attacks against police and alleged members of Islamist organizations, while the latter attacked Turkish NCOs at the border. As I write these lines, Turkish F16s had just struck ISIS target...

Hopeful Wait for Disinflation Continues
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all key short-term rates unchanged as expected today – one-week repo rate at 7.5% and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively (see chart). The content of the statement is exactly the same with the previous one except for one minor m...

​Terror and coalition
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2015

I apologize for delaying this update on the horrific terror attack in the town of Suruc, Sanliurfa Province, only miles away from the Syrian border, to cover Tuesday’s AKP-CHP meeting, as well. The terror attack confirms what has been claimed in our Weekly Trackers many times: Turkey has become p...

Weekly Tracker: July 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2015

Executive Summary PM Davutoglu’s visit to MHP and HDP failed to produce viable coalition partners, but CHP appeared willing, with many experts claiming that trust has been established between the two parties.AKP and CHP set up a joint exploratory committee to negotiate the nuts and bolts of the c...

Weekly Tracker: July 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Long-delayed coalition talks will take start on Monday with a historical meeting between Davutoglu and Kilicdaroglu. The talks are expected to last through July, with final decisions to be made in August. With MHP largely out of the equation, personal trust between AKP and CHP l...

The Long, Hot Summer
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Turkey’s plans to invade several border towns in Syria are for real, but delayed because of objections from the military and the U.S. These may be revived in August, or if Kurdish militia or ISIS capture critical territory. More broadly, AKP is signaling a change in its Syria po...

June Inflation: Food To the Rescue
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2015

Consumer price inflation dropped by a sharper than expected 0.5% in June (June 2014: 0.3%), thanks to a 2.8%, m/m, drop in food and beverage prices (June 2014: +0.4%). This reduced the 12-month CPI rate more visibly than anticipated to 7.2%, from 8.1% in May. This is pretty much where all the goo...

AKP’s candidate wins Speaker elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2015

I want to thank all our readers on behalf of myself, Dr Murat Ucer and that rascally Cosmic Strategist for honoring us with so many questions. Only an hour after the election of the AKP candidate and current Defense Minister Mr. Ismet Yilmaz to the post of the Speaker, our mail boxes were well-at...

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