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Weekly Tracker: May 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2015

Executive Summary Turkish election campaigns have mutated into a three-way mudslinging match between AKP-MHP and HDP, while CHP has been marketing hugely expensive populist promises. We have a large number of polls, but they don’t increase our comfort with predictions.HDP is hovering right at the...

But Next Year, It Will Get Better...
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2015

Today’s inflation print was unfavorable, with CPI inflation coming in at a higher than expected 1.6%, m/m. This has raised the 12-month CPI rate to just under 8% (7.9%, to be precise), further complicating the CBRT’s job and expectation management (Table 1; Graph 1).Food is largely to blame for t...

Weekly Tracker: May 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2015

Executive Summary We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived coalition gover...

To Elections, On Choppy Waters
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Ceteris paribus turned out to be a pretty bad assumption to make, with Turkey underperforming its peers significantly so far in the year despite the boon of a sharply dropping oil price. Post-election uncertainties that have begun to dawn on investors and the ongoing pressures o...

​HDP and CHP’s election promises corner AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

It is encouraging to see that Turkish media is paying greater attention to parties' election manifestos to judge their fitness for power; it is to be hoped that the electorate would do the same. We have already covered AKP’s 400 plus page behemoth which we deemed lacking excitement and rather sel...

MPC: Pass-Through, What’s That?
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2015

Today, the Monetary Policy Committee kept all interest rates unchanged (Graph 1) and tweaked macro-prudential ratios a little, all as expected. The latter involved raising interest rates on TL-based required reserves by 50 bps and reducing the rate charged on F/X borrowings of banks from the CBRT...

Weekly Tracker: April 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The centennial of the so-called Armenian genocide is causing major headaches to Turkish diplomacy, which AKP is overcoming with healthy doses of paranoia and xenophobia. We don’t expect President Obama to join the chorus of genocide-accepters. At home, AKP’s election manifesto i...

London trip notes: A calm bearishness
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2015

Since my return from the Great Conquest of London, 4 international investment banks and three local institutions published research on Turkish elections and the aftermath. The conclusions were eerily similar: Political noise will not taper off after the elections. Since my mission in London was p...

AKP’s candidate roster
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2015

After an 8 day London trip, during which I and my side-kick Cosmic Strategist visited up to 40 members of the investment banking community, I’m back in Turkey, having missed a Weekly and the most important event of the recent past, namely the submission of candidate rosters to the High Election B...

Weekly Tracker: April 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Our political analyst-cum-Cosmic strategist has been touring around the world on a business-cum-leisure trip, so you are stuck with me again this week. We begin by taking note of a recent election simulation that confirms what has sort of become the consensus view by now: if the...

Politics in a Time of Stagflation
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A nation-wide blackout combined with two DHKP-C terror attacks inspired theories of “powers that be” that are trying to destabilize Turkey at the eve of general elections. We don’t subscribe to these theories, but won’t rule out Assad and Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency as...

Food and I: No Room for Complacency
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2015

March CPI inflation came in markedly worse than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9%), lifting the 12-month rate slightly to 7.6%, but – once again – that is because of a pretty bad food inflation print.The 12-month PPI inflation edged up a little, albeit from a low base. Core inflation – as measured by the m...

Growth: Stocks Save the Headline in Q4
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2015

GDP growth came in at 2.6%, y/y, in Q4, somewhat better than both the consensus forecast and our expectation, but the forecast slippage -- as far as ours is concerned -- largely stems from stock build-up.As expected, growth momentum otherwise remains weak. The demand composition was exactly as we...

Weekly Tracker: Mar 29-Apr 4
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We combine this week’s politics and markets sections, to present three election scenarios and their market implications. We think these scenarios are fairly robust to the passage of time, even though there is still 9 weeks to go before the poll date of June 7th. With the excepti...

Answers to Reader Questions
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2015 · 1 response

Dear Readers, I’m still convalescing, which regrettably meant that some of your questions went unanswered for more than 24 hours. I thought it would be a neat idea to answer them together so all our readers can benefit. Since I didn’t ask for permission, the names of the submitters shall remain a...

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