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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth Disappoints, Basci Uplifts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2014

Turkish GDP came in lower than expected in the third quarter of the year -- 1.7% actual vs. 2.9% forecast, y/y – the main culprits being a large contraction in agriculture from the production side and inventory drawdown from the expenditure side. In the year through Q3, GDP thus expanded by 2.8%,...

Weekly Tracker: December 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTurkey’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on a challenge to the country’s electoral system within 30 days that may cause AKP to do some fine-tuning with the qualification hurdle—for the lack of a better phrase. At this point, there is little need to worry about the party losing ...

Inflation: Modest Improvements in Trend
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2014

November CPI inflation came in at 0.2%, broadly as expected, which meant a slight increase in the 12-month rate to 9.2% from 9% in October, on the back of last November’s low base. Food prices are relatively well-behaved this time, rising modestly over a month ago, while, as expected, transportat...

Debunking three Turkey stories
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2014

Three new Turkey stories that erupted into the investors’ agenda need urgent treatment by the usual know-it-all style of the Political Analyst. According to Bloomberg and WSJ, Ankara and Washington DC are close to announcing a deal to establish no-flight and buffer zones in Syria. Pure bunk, I sa...

Weekly Tracker: Nov 30-Dec 6
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2014

Executive Summary AKP’s efforts to whitewash allegations of corruption and bribery, the Internal Security Reform bill and attempts to subvert the Army politically ring alarm bells about the future of the Turkish democracy. We are concerned not only about Turkey’s standing in the free world, but a...

Weekly Tracker: November 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The war against ISIS is marked last week by a couple of victories in Iraq (the capture of Beiji refinery) and Syria (the pushback of ISIS forces from Kobane), but the overall progress is very scant and uneven. In the meantime, Assad and al-Nusra are capturing territory in Syria....

MPC: Not So Dovish After All…
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today: weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively. Three aspects of the statement are worth highlighting. First, the Bank now hints at a moderate shift in the composition of...

The Prize: A (Not So) Epic (Cyclical) Quest…
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis time, Turkey’s newfound fortune – or The Prize* -- is a collapsing oil price. Since the broad-based market sell-off of early October, Turkish markets rallied strongly. Exuberance has gained traction in recent days, with the markets already entertaining – or seriously debatin...

October Inflation: Broadly As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2014

October CPI inflation came in at 1.9%, broadly as expected, which meant a slight increase in the 12-month rate to 9% from 8.9% in September. There are also no major surprises in terms of sub-components, like the housing category (reflecting energy hikes) and textiles (for seasonal reasons) contri...

Weekly Tracker: November 2-8
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Kobane is still contested, but it is time to look beyond it. Soon, Aleppo may fall to pro-ISIS forces, or to Assad, while other Kurdish cantons may also come under attack. Unless Ankara soon offers the coalition forces access to its airbases, tensions between Turkey and the U.S....

Few Impressions on the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 31 Oct 2014

There were no major surprises or a whole lot new, in what we heard today at the presentation of the final Inflation Report of the year. Here are a few highlights. Yearend inflation estimates for this and next year -- as usual, midpoints of 70% probability bands -- are now at 8.9% and 6.1%, respec...

Weekly Tracker: October 27-November 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with an analysis of Ankara’s grave errors of judgment in the course of the Syrian War. As a result of these, Turkey imported an al-Qaeda problem, it argues. Meanwhile, the Peace Process is most probably put on ice until after the 2015 general election...

Weekly Tracker: Oct 26-Nov 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2014

Executive Summary A “yellow substance” mailed to five consulates in Istanbul may turn out to be anthrax bacteria, which could stoke terror anxiety in the markets on Monday. Ankara reluctantly granted access to Iraqi peshmerga to enter Syrian Kurdish town Kobane, which may still fall to ISIS. Turk...

MPC: On Hold, Looking…
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today, as it had done in the previous meeting (see graph). The statement was also virtually identical to the previous one, except one small change on the inflation outlook in a more dovish direction. The reference to benig...

Interesting Times, Dull Forecasts
TURKEY · Forecast · 20 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAs we approach the end of another year of “rebalancing”, like in 2012, the absence of a secular narrative and the sense of “stuckness” in Turkey’s macro outlook are becoming all the more apparent. We think this has been vividly illustrated by the government’s recently released Me...

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