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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Muddling through a fiscal crisis
UKRAINE · Report · 14 Dec 2020

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

Prime rate unchanged at 6% amid inflation speed-up
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

As expected, consumer inflation accelerated to 1.3% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in November from +1.0% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in the prior month. The tendency was named as the main reason for the NBU Board to leave prime rate unchanged at 6%. The NBU hopes for resumption of the IMF cooperation and keeps reservation...

Parliament approves criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations, multiple loopholes have been created
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 4th Verkhovna Rada voted in the law which returns criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations. The relevant provision of the Criminal Code had been previously canceled by the Constitutional court. However, the newly approved version of the law creates multiple loopholes ...

MinFin submitted to Verkhovna Rada a revised spending plan 2021 allegedly approved by the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

On November 26th the Cabinet finally submitted to the parliament a revised spending plan 2021 for the second reading. Minister of finance, Sergiy Marchenko claimed this version of spending plan 2021 was allegedly positively evaluated by the IMF. However, from the details, which have been released...

Strict lockdown is on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

The Cabinet intends to impose new strict lockdown for the New Year holidays, approximately from the mid of December till the mid of January. COVID-19 incidences have already exceeded 16000 cases per day and healthcare system barely proceeds the flow of heavy cases. The Minister of healthcare alre...

A constitutional crisis looms
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Nov 2020

Ukraine has entered a very turbulent period of its modern history. A ruling by the Constitutional Court to void the requirement for e-declarations has unfolded into a full-fledged constitutional crisis without any clear legal way out. Legal experts consider the Court’s ruling itself illegal, and ...

Constitutional crisis: Zelenskiy makes a try to dissolve the Constitutional court
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The Constitutional court ruling, which canceled e-declarations, unleashed a full-fledged constitutional crisis in the country. In light of the harsh reaction of society and western partners, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called yesterday for an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense ...

Constitutional court cancels e-declarations, undermining anti-corruption vertical
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2020

More trash has arrived from Ukrainian judicial system over the last few days. Yesterday, on October 27th, the Constitutional court canceled provision of Criminal Code, which presumes responsibility for incorrect information in e-declarations, according to media. This move effectively destroys the...

​Servant of the People performs poorly at local elections, predictably
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2020

Local elections, held on October 25th, brought no surprise. The ruling party Servant of the People lost this voting across the board. Zelenskiy and his party failed to win any big city of Ukraine. And as of now we can report only five mid-level towns where candidates from the Servant of the Peopl...

The NBU leaves prime rate at 6%, an increase is possible in 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Oct 2020

Today, the NBU Board again left prime rate unchanged at 6%. Despite September consumer inflation was modest (+0.5% m/m or +2.3% y/y), the Central bank anticipates inflation speed up over the upcoming months. That was the main reason behind the decision. The NBU lowered inflation forecast down to ...

The First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova has been stripped of her key authorities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2020

NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko took away from the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova her traditional authority over banking supervision, according to the NBU press-release today. Rozhkova from now will be dealing only with supervision of non-banking institutions. Recall last Friday, o...

The First Deputy Head of the NBU Rozhkova might be dismissed tomorrow
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Oct 2020

Social nets and local media actively discuss potential dismissal of the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova and the Deputy Head Dmytro Sologub. Some bloggers report the NBU Council plans to dismiss both top officials tomorrow, the others say only Rozhkova is on the list. Kateryna Rozhk...

Monetary challenges: To print or not to print?
UKRAINE · Forecast · 07 Oct 2020

Cooperation has been suspended with the IMF, amid stronger-than-expected economic performance: this is the new Ukrainian reality. The trick question is how the government will cover a fiscal gap of up to 6% of GDP, now that the chances of IMF credits resuming are nearly nil. Meanwhile, calls are ...

The NBU Council gives a reprimand to Rozhkova and Sologub
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

The NBU Council gave a reprimand and expressed distrust of the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova and the Deputy Head Dmytro Sologub at the NBU Council meeting on October 2nd, according to the NBU Press-Release published today.According to epravda.com.ua the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevch...

Visionary spending plan 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

On September 14th Ministry of Finance presented spending plan 2021 to public.Next day it was published in details on the web-site of Verkhovna Rada. Minfin assumes a 4.6% GDP growth, 7.3% ytd (or 8.7% y/y) consumer inflation and UAH 29.1/ USD on average in 2021.Such approach allowed to boost nomi...

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