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Agreement on cutting Yanukovitch power reached, media report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Feb 2014

Media reported that through the night there was reached an agreement about cutting Yanukovitch power through resurrection of Constitution 2004 (over the next 48 hours) and creation of coalition government (over the next 10 days). Also media say that Yanukovitch agreed for early elections in Decem...

Denouement is close... last minute solution search
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Feb 2014

Very strange events are happening at Madian today. At the morning all police forces retreated not only from Maidan but also from the government block they have been defending so fiercely over the last few months. Protesters followed them to some extent inspired by unexpected success. However, now...

Has the Final Battle Started?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Feb 2014

Every war has its crucial battle, a battle that will show who is who and what is what. It is difficult to say when it will start and who will win. But it is always clear that after such a battle life will never be the same. It looks that final battle has started in Kyiv. Today protesters marched ...

Russia to buy $2 billion Ukrainian Eurobonds, Siluanov said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Feb 2014

Russia will buy $2 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds this week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated today. In fact, we treat this news as a double-edged sword. On the one side, it is positive since Russian money will ease tension at the forex and will improve confidence in Ukraine’s sustainabilit...

Gross foreign reserves decline 12.8% against messy situation at the forex
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2014

We observe very ‘mysterious’ developments at the forex market since the start of the year. In January forex daily turnover doubled (to USD 2.3 billion) from average daily turnover in 2013 and on some days even exceeded USD 5.0 billion. Still the sources of the demand remain unclear. There was no ...

After-resignation review: risks of military conflict remain high
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

Resignation of prime minister and cancelled dictatorship laws allowed to breathe freely to society for a while. In fact, yesterday the country stepped back from abyss. For January 28 everyone anticipated state of emergency to be voted in which under current tension would be the official start of ...

Dictatorship laws cancelled
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Parliament voted in cancelation of dictatorship laws. It is too premature to talk about resolving of the political crisis but we already have two positive signals (including resignation of prime-minister) that real dialogue between contesting parties has started. Against this backdrop we anticipa...

On the Brink of Civil War
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The situation in Ukraine is unfolding unpredictably, and fast.The dictatorial laws that the authorities “approved” – according to the government’s official version – to scare people away from protests created the radical opposite effect: Ukrainians burst into the streets, seethi...

Prime-minister resigns – a chance for peaceful way out
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Prime-minister Mykola Azarov resigned today. It does not mean that we will see the end of protests very soon – Viktor Yanukovitch remains the main problem at the country. However, it is a strong signal that Yanukovitch is really seeking some concession. This step considerably reduces chance for f...

Devilish tricks: Yanukovitch ‘buys’ opposition with posts at the Cabinet
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2014

Viktor Yanukovitch proposed for opposition leaders posts at the Cabinet. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was suggested to become prime-minister and Vitaliy Klitchko – vice-prime minister. From the first glance the step might look like a search for compromise with the protesters. Indeed dismissal of the Cabinet...

Negotiations failed. Party of war wins. Escalation is ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jan 2014

Today, Andrey Kluyev, the Head of National Security and Defense Council was appointed Head of President Office. Mr. Kluyev, according to media reports, is suspected to be the one who coordinated all crackdowns and provocations against protesters. After yesterdays’ fail of negotiations with Yanuko...

Is it ‘the first shot’ of civil war?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

It finally happened. The ruling group approved the law which might legalize Ukraine as totalitarian regime. After almost two months of active mass-protests the authorities put all protesting actions beyond the law. Today MPs voted in the law which: (a) imposes fees or imprisonment terms for unaut...

A Civil Cold War, Set to Escalate
UKRAINE · Forecast · 29 Dec 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “Civil cold war” is a phrase that describes the domestic situation well.The authorities keep living in a reality of their own making, assuming people will accept it, and that the protests will wane. Yet many Ukrainians don’t foresee a continuation of the status quo: that is, the...

Buying one more year of ‘stability’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2013

Ukraine was sold. Officially. For $15 billion loan and $130 per tcm gas price discount. Yanukovitch has been bargaining heavily with EU and Russia and finally he’s got his price. But he does not look happy with this deal. From this day he became a full-fledged marionette of Putin with all consequ...

A turning point?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2013 · 2 responses

Yesterday Victor Yanukovitch dismissed three officials who were allegedly responsible for bloody crackdown on the night of November 30. Those three were (a) Oleksandr Popov, Head of Kyiv city administration (Kyiv was not allowed to have major elections and Popov was effectively the ruler of the c...

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