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SA political economy update Q4-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018

The past few weeks have registered important developments for the SA political economy landscape. We like to review the key issues:Constitutional Change for Land Expropriation without Compensation (EWC): The much debated, feared, and anticipated Parliamentary support for the change of the constit...

The South African economy exits the technical recession in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

Today’s all-important GDP results indicate that the SA economy has pulled out of the recession, as we had anticipated. Stats SA reports that quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018, meaning, indeed, the economy is out of the techni...

The Reserve Bank hikes the rate to contain inflationary expectations.
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2018

In its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2018, the South African Reserve Bank decided to increase the repurchase (repo) rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.75%, effective from 23 November 2018. This moves the bank lending (prime) rate to 10.25% from 10%. The SARB last made a cha...

Macroeconomic review and perspectives 1994-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 21 Nov 2018

The South African economy benefited from past policies designed to foster economic stability, but more recently it is suffering from structural blockages hindering competitiveness, corruption stemming from the Zuma Administration, and other political economy challenges. • The South African eco...

South African state-owned enterprises: A drag on fiscal position and a threat to financial stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Nov 2018

For sustainable economic growth, development and employment creation, nations need a financial system that is “resilient to systemic shocks, facilitates efficient financial intermediation, and mitigates the macroeconomic costs of disruptions in such a way that confidence in the system is maintain...

President Ramaphosa celebrates Investment Summit positive outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Oct 2018

Investment and economic growth are interconnected, with higher investment proven to lead to higher growth. The inverse is also true, countries that have low investment levels are slow to grow, and even stagnate, leading to poor quality of life in general. The South African economy is no different...

South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2018: Fiscal déjà vu
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2018

Just two weeks after assuming the position of South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni had the unenviable task of tabling his maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 24, 2018. The MTBPS is tabled annually in parliament in October and sets out the economic context and as...

Will South Africa’s upcoming mini budget please Moody’s?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Moody’s rating agency, the only one of the main three that still has South Africa’s credit under investment grading (Baa3 with a stable outlook), indicated a few weeks ago that it is not likely to downgrade the country during its next review. Despite this somewhat assuring statement, Moody’s stil...

The South African economy struggles to launch
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Oct 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: South Africa is in a technical recession. This is the result of two consecutive quarterly contractions in the country’s gross domestic product during H1 2018. President Ramaphosa presented the country’s economic stimulus package during end-Septemb...

Tito Mboweni is South Africa's new Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Oct 2018

As predicted in my yesterday's Note, SA has a new Minister of Finance today- it is the 5th Minister of Finance since December 2015.Mr Tito Mboweni is SA's x-Governor of the Reserve Bank, as well as the first Minister of Labour in post-1994 democratic South Africa who served in Mandela's Cabinet. ...

Will the President’s Jobs Summit help revive South Africa’s employment creation?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018

The South African government hosted the Jobs Summit 2018 that took place from 4th to 5th October 2018. Earlier this year (February 2018), President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his maiden State of the Nation Address (SONA), highlighting that the creation of jobs (especially for the youth) will be at...

South Africa may soon have yet another Finance Minister - A developing story.
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

Speculations are ripe that Minister Nene may soon be out of his job. This emerged following his testimony to the Zondo Commission of Inquiry - alternatively known as the State Capture Commission. On Friday, Minister Nene disclosed his meetings with the Gupta brothers, visiting their business prem...

Political Overview: Beneath and beyond the waning “Ramaphoria”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Oct 2018

​This is a Special Report on South Africa by Dr. Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry. In the past eight months, South Africa has experienced a slight change in the tone of policy. A number of moderate reforms have been carried out, incl...

Will the revised new Mining Charter spur more investment in mining?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Oct 2018

Echoing President Ramaphosa’s statement during his delivery of the economic stimulus package on September 21, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe argued that with the new Mining Charter 2018, gazetted on September 27, the government aims to create more regulatory certainty in the sector. In...

President Ramaphosa unveils South Africa’s economic stimulus package
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2018

With SA’s economy in the doldrums, declining for a while, President Cyril Ramaphosa promised the country a stimulus package that would help revive the ailing economy – South Africa is currently in a technical recession as a result of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during H1 2018.

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