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SA 2017 Budget Speech and President Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Feb 2017

Tomorrow is SA's 2017 Budget Speech day! The usual annual hype around the fiscal policies is once again dominated by the political games at play surrounding the Minister, and more broadly around the control of the National Treasury. In my last commentary I warned that the probability of the forth...

President Zuma’s 2017 State of Nation Address: Not Much Inspiration, and Much Humiliation, Insults, Pepper Gas and Eviction
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

President Zuma’s State of Nation Addresses (SONA) 2017 was a lot more dramatic than his 2016. His speech was delayed by an hour due to melodramatic, eventful, violent and humiliating display of political theatrics. Armed with last year’s Constitutional Court’s judgement that President Zuma had vi...

President Zuma’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Calm before the Storm
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2017

South Africa is abuzz with speculation about President Zuma’s pending Cabinet reshuffle. In fact since August 2016, and in the wake of the local government elections, expectations of cabinet reshuffle have been building up. In part because a couple of ministerial positions have been vacant follow...

The Reserve Bank Gives Economic Growth a Fighting Chance as it Refrains from Raising Interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jan 2017

In a move that did not surprise the markets, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate at 7% per annum, leaving the prime overdraft rate at 10.50%. The latest inflation data (December 2016) shows an acceleration in the inflation rate ...

Another Insipid Quarter for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Jan 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South African economic growth was erratic during the first three quarters of 2016, with even the relatively high growth recorded during the second quarter proving to be unsustainable as GDP growth rate dipped to only 0.2% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the third quar...

The Current Account Deficit Widens as Exports Dip
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2016

According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the deficit in the current account widened by R53 billion to register R176 billion in the third quarter of 2016 (see Table 1).

The South African Economy Barely Manages to Grow During the Third Quarter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

​Statistics South Africa today reported that growth in real (inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product decelerated notably at a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2016. This followed a relatively impressive upwardly adjusted growth rate of 3.5% (from 3...

President Zuma Hangs to Power- But Only Just!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Nov 2016

The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) decision, after a 3-day meeting held over the past three days, announced earlier today is a short term victory for Zuma! In an unexpected turn of event on Saturday three of his Cabinet Ministers tabled a “vote of no confidence” in him requesting him to...

The Reserve Bank Ends the Year with the Repo Rate Unchanged at 7%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

As we had predicted after the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) previous meeting, the latter has once again decided to keep the benchmark interest rate, i.e. the repo rate, at 7%; effectively leaving the prime lending rate at 10.5%. Today’s decision came despite th...

Unemployment Rises in the Third Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

​Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), conducted during July to September 2016 (Q3:2016), shows that the unemployment rate increased to 27.1%, up from 26.6% for Q2:2016 and 26.7 for Q1:2016. See Graph 1. The slight quarter-on-quarter increase in the unemployment rate was...

SA President in a Political Stalemate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

SA political economy scene has been hot, noisy, and increasingly bewildered over the past few weeks. There has not been much developments of any substance. I have been monitoring the situation carefully. There has been a great deal of political grand standing, tactical moves, threatening noise an...

President Zuma vs Assembly of People of South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Nov 2016

Today may well mark a turning point in the evolving Constitutional Democracy in South Africa. As I predicted over the past two days, this week is pregnant with political economy surprises....The long-awaited Public Protector's Report on State Capture was released by the order of the High Court af...

President Zuma is running out of options
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Yesterday was a bad day for President Zuma. I was asked : what is the probability that he would be out of office by December 2017? My response is as follows:The chances have never been so good. President Zuma is at his weakest point, politically speaking. Yesterday, one of the largest public sect...

SA Minister of Finance off the Legal Hook and Politically Stronger
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 31 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The Director of National Prosecuting Agency (NPA), Mr Shaun Abrahams, had to reverse his decision of earlier this month, on October 11th, to charge Minister Pravin Gordhan for fraud and corruption. The case was due to be heard at the courts on November 2nd, 2016. The case caused much speculation ...

Improved Economic Conditions – but for How Long?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 21 Oct 2016

• Economic Growth: Our GDP forecast for both 2016 and 2017 depend upon a number of factors, one of the most important being South Africa’s sovereign credit rating remaining in investment grade territory. Complex domestic and global forces are still affecting South African economic growth. For in...

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