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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ maintains taper, Baghdad summit held, Saudi-Omani investments mooted
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its 400k b/d monthly taper, and Brent crude has rebounded to $73. * The Saudi and Iran foreign ministers participated in the Baghdad summit, and a fourth round of bilateral talks are planned. * Dubai’s ru...

The fiscal outlook improves as Gulf states show expenditure constraint in H1 and oil revenue trends up
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2021 · 1 response

* H1 fiscal balances ranged from a -7.8% of GDP deficit for Oman to a 1.3% surplus for Qatar. * Spending is down across all four states that have reported H1 fiscal data. * We see Qatar’s surplus expanding to 2.2% of GDP for 2021 as a whole. * We forecast a Saudi deficit of -0.7% of GDP, more ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Gulf facilitates Afghan evacuation, UAE royal visits Qatar, vaccination rates rise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE’s Sheikh Tahnoun visited Qatar’s Emir in a potential breakthrough in the bilateral feud. * Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are hosting Afghan evacuees, and Gulf states are contemplating relations with the Taliban. ...

​GULF WEEKLY: EDO raises $2.5bn loan, Bahrain’s H1 fiscal, Kuwait plans spending cuts, Turkey-UAE meeting
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE granted refugee status to the Afghan president, and Qatar was a focal point for evacuations and Taliban talks. * Inflation rose to multi-year highs in July in several states but in Saudi it dropped sharply, a year ...

The Taliban victory creates risks for Gulf states
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Aug 2021

The speed of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has shocked policymakers in the Gulf as much as those in the US. It will take time to see how the new regime will behave in practice, and the second-order implications of this dramatic development are difficult to predict, but we can begin to specu...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait's 2020 deficit 30% of GDP, Covid rates ease regionally, Oman’s H1 deficit 9% of GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IPCC gave a grim climate assessment that could spur an accelerated energy transition. * Raisi nominated his cabinet, and hints began to emerge for the future of nuclear negotiations. * Coronavirus rates have fallen sh...

SAUDI: Deficit narrows sharply and the economic recovery continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Aug 2021 · 1 response

* The deficit narrowed to -0.6% of GDP in Q2, and we forecast -1.1% for 2021 overall. * Higher oil prices or greater remittance of sovereign wealth returns could even generate a surplus. * Real GDP grew by 1.5% y/y in Q2, and we forecast 2.3% for 2021 as a whole.

GULF WEEKLY: Tanker attacks overshadow Raisi inauguration, Gulf PMIs are strong, Oman backtracks on subsidy reform
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf ministers from UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman attended President Raisi’s inauguration. * Two Europeans were killed in a drone strike on a tanker off Oman, and there was an attempted hijacking of another, both blamed on I...

GULF WEEKLY: Tunisia crisis stirs Gulf divisions, Omani unemployment falls, IMF warns Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Tunisia’s president has made a power grab, dismissing the prime minister, closing parliament and launching a probe of Islamist party Ennahda, which has had close relations with Qatar. * The Tunisian crisis risks reopening ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait downgraded, phone hacking scandal, MBZ visits MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * After dipping following Sunday’s OPEC+ deal, oil has recovered back to last week’s level (Brent $73). * The UAE and Saudi crown princes met in Riyadh to signal their ongoing alliance despite differences. * There were emba...

​OPEC+ deal boosts future allocations for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new OPEC+ deal implements a 2m b/d taper in cuts over the rest of 2021 and extends producer cooperation until end-2022. It implies further tapering back to baselines by October 2022. In return for its cooperation, the UAE gets a boost in its baseline to 3.5m b/d (a 10.5% increase) for the fin...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ compromise pending, Sultan visits Saudi, Fitch stabilizes Saudi outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE is willing to support an OPEC+ extension to end-2022 in return for a 0.5m b/d hike in its baseline. * JCPOA talks appear to be stalled until at least mid-August. * Coronavirus rates are improving in Kuwait and Oma...

​GULF WEEKLY: IMF reports on Oman and Saudi, Sharjah issues sukuk, MBS’s brother visits DC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There was no visible progress on the OPEC+ impasse but oil has come off its mid-week high. * Also no progress towards a US-Iran deal but more tensions as Iran increased its uranium metal enrichment. * Kuwait surpassed Oma...

​Saudi-UAE OPEC+ disagreement tests their relationship
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jul 2021

OPEC+ has failed to reach an agreement on tapering and extending its deal because the UAE is arguing for the right to produce more in line with its capacity. This dispute has focused attention on broader divergences between the UAE and its close ally Saudi Arabia. However, we expect a compromise ...

​GULF WEEKLY: UAE delays OPEC+ talks, Kuwait’s foreign assets surge, Bahrain’s Q1 GDP recovery is weak
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ talks dragged into today as the UAE argues it should be able to produce more. * US-Iran talks paused for a week as pressure builds due to non-cooperation with IAEA monitoring. * Covid continued to surge in Oman but ...

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