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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​GULF WEEKLY: Dubai Q1 worse than Saudi, stimuluses extended, Iraq hopes for IMF loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai’s Q1 GDP (-3.5% y/y) was much weaker than Saudi's because of its more open economy. * Oil rose but Angola could be a spoiler to the OPEC+ deal and a Libyan restart is ...

SAUDI: Private-sector GDP down about -10% m/m in March
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On June 30, Saudi Arabia was the first Gulf state to publish Q1 real GDP data (GAS). The headline figure is a -1.0% y/y contraction (-4.6% oil, +1.6% non-oil), compared with -0.3% y/y in Q4, or a seasonally adjusted contraction of -0.4% q/q. On the surface, this may seem like a much smaller impac...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain reserves collapse, Oman downgraded, Qatar affirmed, Hajj curtailed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain belatedly published 3 months of FX reserves, which hit a record low in April. * Moody’s downgraded Oman to Ba3 (Negative) despite expectations of GCC support. * F...

OMAN: Surprise surplus in Jan-Apr, but don’t get too excited yet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jun 2020

Official statistics show a fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP in Jan-Apr 2020. However, this is misleading given one-off transfers and temporary spending cuts. The underlying fiscal balance is more likely a deficit of at least 6% of GDP. Even so, there are encouraging signs of spending cuts in some ar...

​GULF WEEKLY: WTO backs Qatar, Sabic deal restructured, oil rises on compliance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rises on signs of improving OPEC+ compliance. * Coronavirus cases grew very rapidly in Saudi for a second week, but improved elsewhere. * Bahraini holdings of US Trea...

​GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends, Saudi COVID resurgence, Oman bailout talks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ extends cuts for a month, and laggards promise compensation. * Saudi faces a second coronavirus wave, but it hasn’t clearly emerged elsewhere yet. * Fitch increased...

​GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ near to extending cuts, Saudi transferred $40bn to PIF
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on further indications of a pending extension to OPEC+ cuts. * PMIs began to recover across the region in May. * Coronavirus infections fell by -5% w/w in th...

Extra OPEC+ cuts will be credit positive, as is Qatar's LNG carrier order
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Highlights: * OPEC+ is expected to bring forward its meeting to this Thursday. * The current -9.7m b/d cuts are likely to be extended for at least two months. * Most of the revenue gains from this action are likely to come in Q4 and 2021. * Separately, Qatar's order of 100+ LNG carriers...

​GULF WEEKLY: Reopenings accelerate, and oil cuts might be extended
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 May 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Most states outlined reopening plans for the next few weeks. * Coronavirus active infections fell in Saudi and Qatar, but returned to growth in UAE and are rising quickly ...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues at much lower yields, lockdowns intensify for Eid
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Coronavirus growth decelerated regionally but worries about spread due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday led to an intensification of lockdo...

GULF WEEKLY: New oil cuts and austerity as coronavirus trends diverge
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil gained slightly as Saudi announced an extra 1m b/d cut in June and others followed. * Coronavirus growth slowed in Saudi and UAE...

​SAUDI: Tripling the VAT is a bold move that will facilitate reforms in other states
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

Saudi Arabia has announced new fiscal consolidation totalling $27bn (4% of GDP), including spending cuts, ending a key benefit for public sector employees and tripling the VAT to 15%. These will help significantly with fiscal consolidation, particularly in 2021, but at the cost of further contrac...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain issues, Saudi on negative outlook, coronavirus slows further
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Moody’s put Saudi on negative outlook, expecting a 12% of GDP deficit and debt rising to 45%. * Bahrain issued $2bn, split into 4.5y...

GULF WEEKLY: Coronavirus slows, Saudi/Qatar fiscal data, Oman/Dubai GRE downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 May 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rose by about $5 over the week, and the new OPEC+ quotas came into effect today. * Coronavirus growth rates finally began to slo...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil plummets, Trump-Iran tensions return, Bahrain cuts spending
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * The latest crash in oil prices, which saw Brent touch $16, weighed on Gulf markets. * Trump and Iran exchanged threats about destroy...

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