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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GCC fiscal deficit could reach $250bn in 2020 with a 16% drop in non-oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Recent forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 have looked optimistic. We have built a model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC states in different scenarios. In our baseline, we assume a 23% drop in non-oil output for 6 months and an oil price of $30 on average in 2020-21. In this scenari...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil falls, Saudi issues $7bn, March data drips out and forecasts are bleak
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Despite OPEC+ finalizing its cuts, Brent oil fell back to $28 amidst a 29m b/d demand shock. * The World Bank and IMF released forec...

​GCC: The IMF's gloomy forecasts may still be too optimistic
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2020

* Markets were shocked by the IMF’s “Great Lockdown” forecasts this week, but its GCC outlook looks too optimistic in certain regards, although it is a valuable benchmark. * The GCC’s non-oil contraction in 2020 (-4.3%) is in line with the global COVID shock, although the IMF warns of “extreme u...

Gulf weekly: OPEC+ forges 10m b/d deal, Qatar & Abu Dhabi issue $17bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ agrees to 2-years of historic cuts but market is not yet impressed. * Qatar issued $10bn in bonds and Abu Dhabi issued $7bn. Dub...

QATAR: Upsized issuance demonstrates confidence and could spur other regional borrowers
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Apr 2020

It was no surprise that Qatar began marketing its bond issuance today. Interest in further borrowing had been signalled back in December when the state held a wide-ranging roadshow, despite its $12bn issuance a year ago (which confused markets because the country was running a fiscal surplus and ...

Negative comments diminish hopes for a new OPEC+ deal
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2020

There have been new developments, both positive and negative, over the weekend on the prospects for a renewed (and greatly expanded) OPEC+ deal. The market may start to take a view on this early in the week, possibly as soon as Asian trading opens on Monday, with the potential for a significant i...

​Gulf weekly: Bahrain repays, Qatar looks to issue and oil bounces
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rebounded on hopes of a new OPEC+ deal after a Trump-MBS call. * Coronavirus cases doubled in the Gulf but the growth rate halve...

KUWAIT/OMAN: Moody’s places on review for downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Moody's put Oman and Kuwait on review for downgrades given the drop in oil prices during March, the coronavirus crisis and underlying concerns about governance in both states. We think it is highly likely that Oman will be downgraded, although Kuwait may just avoid it.

Gulf weekly: S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, and virus lockdowns intensify
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil remained very weak, but a grand US-Saudi-Russia deal is unlikely to happen. * Coronavirus cases more than tripled in Saudi and U...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: GCC - Navigating Gulf uncertainty amidst the oil crash and corona crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Justin Alexander provides an update on the GCC countries amid the oil and coronavirus crises, with a focus on the collapse of the OPEC+ deal, fiscal scenarios, and the impact on each of the GCC countries individually. Longer-term trends are worrisome for Saudi, and Oman and Bahrain are likely to ...

S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, affirms rest of GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Mar 2020

In the first coordinated set of rating actions since the onset of the twin crises of coronavirus and the oil crash, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Kuwait to AA- and Oman to BB- (Negative outlook) and also lowered Bahrain’s outlook to Stable (from positive) but affirmed its B+ rating, the lowest in ...

​Gulf weekly: Stimulus mixed with spending cuts as oil drops further and COVID cases double
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Active coronavirus cases doubled in the Gulf, stabalizing in Bahrain but quadrupling in Saudi. * $75bn in stimulus measures were ann...

​Gulf support and stimulus measures target SMEs
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2020

Gulf governments and central banks, except for Kuwait, have rolled out their first wave of monetary and fiscal packages in response to the oil slump and coronavirus crisis, totalling at least $75bn, a figure that mixes liquidity support for banks, loan deferrals and fiscal measures such as tax cu...

Gulf weekly: Oman downgraded and others threatened by oil & COVID crises
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Mar 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi & UAE announced plans to hike output by 3.5m b/d. * Fitch downgraded Oman to BB (negative outlook), as the country looks to ra...

Deficits return to 2016 levels on oil crash and coronavirus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2020

* ​We see deficits ranging from about 3% of GDP (Qatar) to 13% (Oman) with oil averaging $44. * This incorporates assumptions about policy measures and coronavirus impacts. * The region’s overall deficit could change by about ±3% if the annual average oil price is ±$5. * Oman and Bahrain are t...

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