GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Gulf Countries

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit hit $78bn, GDP data for UAE & Kuwait, Covid gets political in Kuwait

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Saudi Arabia’s deficit more than doubled to $78bn despite above-budget non-oil revenue. * Spending was up by 2% y/y due to Covid, but salaries and capex were cut in line with plans. * Saudi Arabia lifted most Covi...

Higher oil prices offer temporary relief but could stall reforms

GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 09 Mar 2021

Higher-than-expected oil prices are great news for the Gulf, particularly the weaker sovereigns, and deficits should be lower than originally feared; in the most bullish case even Saudi Arabia could achieve a surplus. However, even then, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait would still have significant finan...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ postpones taper, Khashoggi report reverberates, Kuwait forms cabinet

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * OPEC+ surprised markets by keeping cuts unchanged for April, including Saudi’s extra 1m b/d. * Iran rejected an EU proposal for talks but there were hints of a softening later in the week after the US withdrew a cr...

SAUDI ARABIA: Khashoggi report blames MBS and US imposes travel ban on 76 Saudis

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

The declassified summary of the US National Intelligence report is very brief (500 words). It states “we assess” that MBS approved an operation “to capture or kill” Jamal Khashoggi based on: "His control of decision making in the Kingdom;The direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muha...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Feb 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave. * Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts. *...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar reconciliation, Saudi oil cut, Kuwaiti cabinet may resign, Omani budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC agreed to hold production largely flat for two months, then Saudi voluntarily cut by 1m b/d. * The cut pushed oil to a post-Covid high. Unrelatedly, the Asian LNG spo...

Saudi shuts borders and Dubai stocks crash over new Covid strain

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

Concerns are growing about a mutation of coronavirus which emerged in September and has become the predominant strain in parts of the UK during December. Preliminary results suggest it may be up to 70% more transmissible, although this is not confirmed. The UK government, which announced more str...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...

KUWAIT: New parliament seems more oppositional, but will pass debt law

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2020

* It was a rare achievement for the outgoing parliament to complete a four-year term. * The newly elected parliament looks more oppositional, although many new MPs are relative unknowns, given a 62% turnover. * The picture should become clearer in the upcoming vote for a speaker on December 15....

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC tapers by 0.5m b/d, PMIs rise strongly, hopes for Saudi-Qatar deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on the OPEC+ decision to taper by 0.5m b/d, vs the original plan for 2m. * Biden’s Iran challenge was complicated by approval of a law rolling back nuclear com...

Fakhrizadeh killing could speed lifting of sanctions if Iran shows restraint

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2020

If Iran maintains strategic patience in responding to the killing of its nuclear scientist, despite pressure from hardliners in parliament, the incident should actually increase the urgency of the Biden Administration in quickly restoring the JCPOA, our baseline scenario. However, if there are fu...

An imminent breakthrough on the Qatar rift is possible but unlikely

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2020

* A regional visit by Jared Kushner has raised hopes of a breakthrough on the rift, although he is more focused on the Israel normalization push. * The best outcome, still unlikely, is an easing of the airspace blockade by Saudi Arabia. * For Saudi Arabia a resolution could help ease tensions w...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies, Dubai & Oman tap bonds, Bibi visits MBS

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil touched $49, the highest since the March OPEC+ meeting, ahead of the next key meeting. We anticipate a 3-month delay to the 2m b/d taper. * MBS hosted Israel’s prime m...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco bond, UAE OPEC exit rumors, Trump considered an Iran strike

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is musing a 3-6 month taper delay, and there are rumors the UAE will quit (it won’t...yet). * Trump considered a strike on Iran, while Zarif urged Biden not to wait ...