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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Is lending to bankrupt countries really a good idea?
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

There are a number of Middle Eastern states that would struggle to access international bond markets without the backing of the wealthy Gulf states. We analyze how this politics of support is unfolding across the region and examine differing oil price scenarios out to 2030 using our measure of de...

Gulf weekly: Houthis strike Saudi oil sites and Bolton is out
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Another dramatic week in the Gulf as the Houthi rebels in Yemen temporarily knocked out 5.7m b/d of Saudi oil production offline in drone strikes. Prior to this, the surprise sacking of John Bolton had raised hopes for an easing of US-Iran tensions. There was also plenty going on during the week ...

SAUDI: Update on Abqaiq/Khurais attacks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Brent oil opened up about $8 in early trading in Asia, one of the sharpest every daily spikes. It now looks like only about a third of the lost 5.7m b/d will come back online by end-Monday. The rest will take weeks. We estimate that there is about another 1.65m b/d in spare capacity at other Saud...

SAUDI: The big oil attack we’ve all been waiting for
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Sep 2019

Reports suggest Houthi rebels successfully attacked a crude oil processing facility, handling 5m b/d of Saudi oil output. This is the largest outage in the history of the global oil sector. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has alleged Iran was directly behind the attack.Early indications are tha...

Gulf weekly: Saudi shakes up oil, Dubai warns on real estate and Kuwaiti emir in US hospital
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Sep 2019

​It was a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector which saw MBS’s half-brother, Abdulaziz, appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. In Dubai, the emir called for action to address real estate oversupply. France tried to advance its US-Iran mediatio...

SAUDI: Royal appointed as energy minister
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Sep 2019

At the end of a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector, Abdulaziz bin Salman al Saud, the half-brother of the crown prince, Mohamad bin Salman (MBS), was appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. Khalid al-Falih was replaced as energy minister afte...

OMAN: ​Fiscal deep dive 2: Governance vacuum threatens fiscal reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 01 Sep 2019 · 1 response

With the exception of VAT, most of the easy fiscal adjustment has already happened. Further significant and painful reforms are unlikely to be implemented due to the current absence of strong leadership. Alternatives to reform are limited, asset sales are unsustainable and regional support has be...

Gulf weekly: Rouhani-Trump could meet, Abu Dhabi may issue and Aramco looks to Tokyo
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2019

It was another busy week politically in the region, with a further uptick in tensions in Lebanon and Yemen (not to mention Palestine, in the run-up to Israeli elections and the Kushner peace plan), but also unexpected openness to a possible US-Iran detente (we're skeptics). At a time when regiona...

OMAN: Fiscal deep dive 1: H1 performance won’t be sustained
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 30 Aug 2019

H1 fiscal numbers were surprisingly good thanks to one-off gains including the lagged impact of the 2017 income tax law and higher 2018 oil prices, a surge in investment income, and the sale of a stake in Khazzan gasfield. However, this will not be sustained in H2, when seasonal trends mean there...

Saudi unlikely to let Lebanon default (yet)
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Lebanese bonds and CDS are under rising pressure as tensions with Israel have added to the country’s domestic woes.We put a probability of Gulf support at about 70%, most likely from Saudi Arabia. The current sell-off could offer a good opportunity to buy into Lebanese bonds, which would partiall...

​A Trump-Rouhani meeting is unlikely to resolve Iran crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Aug 2019

There has been growing talk today of a Trump-Rouhani meeting in the aftermath of the surprise appearance of Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the G7 summit yesterday. Macron, who had spoken to both presidents, said that the conditions are right for a meeting, potentially wi...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait's emir has a health scare
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2019

The Gulf has begun to wake up from the long summer and Eid holidays. Notable policy developments over the last week included an extension of customs duties in the UAE (a move other Gulf states are likely to emulate) and further moves towards the Aramco IPO. Tension with Iran and in Yemen continue...

Tighter Iran sanctions should boost oil prices in 2020
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 23 Aug 2019

Iran sanctions will take 1m b/d off the market in 2020 and its response will increase the geopolitical risk premium. The combination of these factors should boost oil prices to an average of $65-70 in 2020. This is a slightly out-of-consensus view, as most forecasters see prices as flat or fallin...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco call and regional tensions disturb Eid holidays
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2019

Welcome to our first weekly economic and political update for the Gulf. Last week was quiet on the domestic economic front, given the Eid al-Adha holidays, which meant that government departments were closed all week and local markets were also closed for most of the week. However, there were sti...

YEMEN: Conflict in Aden might help end Yemen’s civil war, benefiting the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Counterintuitively, a new axis of conflict in Yemen, which saw southern separatists capture Aden last weekend, might help end the civil war. This is because it could be easier for the separatists than the government to find accommodation with the Houthi rebels, who control the northern highlands....

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