Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation y-o-y to stabilize, disinflation expected from March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that during the last week of January, the w-o-w inflation was at zero, and as of February 1, inflation YTD reached 0.7%. It is not yet the official number for January as monthly inflation numbers assume a broader consumption basket than preliminary estimates of weekly inflation. ...

Russian macro: money markets becoming less distorted in 2021 as Minfin’s meddling set to subside
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2021

Ruble liquidity tightened in 4Q20 and continued to do so in January, as well, despite massive spending from the federal budget at the very end of the year. In December alone the government spent R3.9 trln (versus R2.1 trln in November). The federal budget deficit reached R1.7 trln in December, a...

GDP contracts by a mere 3.1% in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP decreased by 3.1% in 2020, which is in line with GKEM Analytica’s expectations. As was mentioned in the previous notes, ongoing regular upward revisions of monthly statistics explain a slightly better outcome relative to what GKEM Analytica expected. On top o...

​OFZ issuance: poor start of the year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021

The first month of the year 2021 was not fruitful for the Finance Ministry in terms of the borrowing on the local market. Since the beginning of the year, the government has managed to place OFZ worth only R61.1 bln, which is a very poor result given the annual plan of R3.7 trln. Demand from inte...

Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more...

As w-o-w inflation remains high the government considers some administrative measures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

Rosstat reported Russia’s inflation during the seven days ending January 25 remained at 0.2%, i.e., it was on average the same as w-o-w inflation in December and earlier in January. The y-o-y inflation in January will likely be close to 5.5%. A closer look at the breakdown of inflation components...

The Russian industry contracted by 2.9% in 2020, as the OPEC+ deal pulled mining down while manufacturing grew moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2021

The contraction in 2Q20 and 3Q20 (by 6.7% and 4.8% y-o-y, accordingly) was deeper. After the initial shock caused by the pandemic in 2Q20, production was catching up almost all across the board. Mining was still down by 8.4% y-o-y in 4Q20 (and by 7.0% in 2020 as a whole). Manufacturing was up by ...

The Russian budget: decent execution in 2020 sets a good base for 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending massively increased in December, and in 2020 as a whole, the government expenditures exceeded R22.8 trln. In December alone, the government allocated 17.1% of the annual figure. Both figures appeared well above the expected. Meanwh...

The Russian ruble: settling in the comfort zone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2021

During the pandemic-hit 2020, the Russian economy demonstrated that its ability to absorb external shocks is rather strong, as its GDP contraction was moderate, while in the past decade it demonstrated that it lacks strong growth drivers as the average annual economic growth was quite unimpressiv...

The current account widens in 4Q20 as exports grow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

The Central bank released its first estimate of the 2020 balance of payments. The current account was in surplus at $32.5bn, and the figure is close to what GKEM Analytica expected (around $35bn or 2.4% of GDP). Meanwhile, in 2019 the current account surplus was twice as wide – $64.8 bn.The trade...

​Minfin is back as an FX buyer
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Today, the Finance Ministry announced that it resumes purchasing of the hard currency on the open market according to the “fiscal rule”. From Jan 15 till Feb 4 it will spend R7.1 bln daily for this purpose. To remind, the rule was working in the opposite direction for the last 8 months, since Apr...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: hoping for a slightly better life in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2021

Unsurprisingly, the coronavirus, the respective restrictions and the measures undertaken by the authorities were perceived as the most important developments in 2020. After reaching a peak on December 24 (nearly 30K infected) Russia’s number of daily Covid-19 cases has started to subside graduall...

Minfin’s borrowing program remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

Despite better-than-expected execution of the borrowing program in 2020, Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to keep a relatively high pace of OFZ issuance in 1Q21, which is comparable with the results achieved in the second and third quarters of 2020. To remind, it managed to raise R5.3 trln on the ...

Upward revisions of statistics continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

At the very end of December, Rosstat published revised GDP statistics for 2018 and 2019. Also, the statistical agency released its first estimate of the 3Q20 GDP by end-use. Previously it was considered that in 2018 and 2019 the Russian GDP increased by 2.5% and 1.3% accordingly. The new numbers ...

Russia’s macro: Weathering the 2020 storm, looking for tipping points ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Dec 2020

A year ago, we expected moderate GDP growth in 2020, a kind of muddling through seen in the past years. Inflation was supposed to decelerate slightly from the 3% reached in 2019. Hence we expected the key rate to be gradually cut by at least 100 bps. The current account and the federal budget bal...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.