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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian Macro: Strong surpluses to weaken, growth to strengthen
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2020

The federal budget posted a surplus of R1,967 trln or 1.8% of GDP, in line with expectations. Total revenues reached nearly R20.2 trln. Revenue collection was particularly strong in December as non-oil-and-gas revenues increased by around 29% y-o-y, while in 2019 as a whole they were up by 17.4%....

Ruble bonds: The upside is limited
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The Russian market rallied at the beginning of the year. As a result, OFZ yields in the long end of the curve dropped almost to the level of the CBR key rate. Coupled with the strengthening of the ruble observed in December–January, it makes ruble sovereigns less attractive for international inve...

The Russian government resigns, no immediate change expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jan 2020

​The Russian government resigned in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federation Council, in which the Russian president suggested some amendments to the country’s constitution. It is too early to guess how the government's economic policy may change, but most likely some ke...

OFZ: Retail flows to support the market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

The deceleration of inflation in Russia pushed down interest rates across the economy, including those of banking deposits. This trend has already fueled the demand of private individuals for financial markets, as they have already opened more than 3 mln accounts at the Moscow Exchange. We see hi...

Reconciling the incompatible
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 02 Jan 2020

The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced mixed impressions, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The ...

Robust budget execution signals GDP growth is steady
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat recently revealed that after a weak start to the year, y-o-y GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 3Q19 from 0.5% and 0.9% in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget balance turned negative in October amid stable revenue flow as spending started to catch u...

Strong profit tax collection hints at better growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation remained at 0.1% for another week, consumer prices increased by a mere 0.2% from December 1 to 16, and inflation in 2019 as a whole is likely to stay around 3.1% or even lower, to fall well below 3.0% next month (say, to around 2.5%) and to stay around this ...

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