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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Jan 25 Oil transit: Belarus has raised tariffs for oil transit from Kazakhstan to Europe by 38%, from Russia - by 10.2% National Railways: Freight transportation by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 22% in 2023 to 28 mln tons Government: Kazakhstan plans to double production of agric...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...

Kazakhstan macro: 2024 Budget risks arising from strong tenge, low 2023 tax revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Feb 2024

According to the Ministry of Finance's recently published 2023 annual budgetary statistics, it appeared that the republican budget deficit didn’t deviate much from the target even though tax revenues lagged well behind the plan. The government lacked tax revenues due to an overvalued tenge. The l...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jan 2024

Jan 11 Trade Ministry: Kazakhstan fulfills its obligations to reduce re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia S&P: Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 10K bpd in December. Jan 12 National pipeline company: Kazakhstan supplied 993K tons of oil to Germany in 2023 and plans to raise this amount to ...

Kazakhstan macro: Domestic demand expands amid booming consumer credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Jan 2024

On January 19, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 50 bps to 15.25%, which is still high as y-o-y inflation fell to 9.8% at the end of 2023. In December, m-o-m inflation reached 0.8%, implying about 10% annualized. Meanwhile, in recent months, the annualized 3M moving average inf...

Decent economic performance in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2023, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of activity in the main segments of the economy) grew by 5.1%, implying that the country’s GDP could have expanded by over 5%. In 9M23, GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y. The industr...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2024

Dec 28 S&P: The agency confirms KazMunaiGas' credit rating at BB+ with "stable" outlook CPC: The company suspended oil transportation through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline from Dec 25 to Dec 28 Prime-Minister: Kazakhstan's GDP growth is expected at 5% in 2023 Gazprom: By mid-year, the company ...

Kazakhstan macro: One-off measures improve revenue collection in 2023, but next year looks challenging
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Jan 2024

At the end of December, the Ministry of Finance published budgetary 11M23 statistics, and the data were not immune from surprises. We have often mentioned that a weaker tenge was required to finance all the amended expenditures. In 2023, tax collection was well behind the plan, as the strengtheni...

Kazakhstan’s budgetary performance markedly improves in November amid a one-off effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the country’s Ministry of Finance published detailed budgetary 11M23 statistics, and these data were not immune from surprises. Previously, we repeatedly broached these issues and mentioned that a weaker tenge was required to finance all the amended expenditures. Tax collection wa...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

Dec 14 Eurasian Development Bank: The Bank updated its 2023 GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.8%. The Bank also lifted the 2024 growth figure (from 4.4% to 5%). Dec 15 Government: Kazakhstan doesn't want to agree with a tariff increase (by 43.4%) for pumping its oil to Germany through Russia/Bel...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth is stable but the tenge remains too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its usual updates on the country’s key economic indicators. The figures indicated that the economy continued to grow at a decent pace, albeit unevenly across sectors. Earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported that tax colle...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

Nov 29 KazTransOil: The national pipeline company estimated that in November, oil exports to Germany were on track to grow by 54% compared to the initial plan and reach 150K tons KazTransOil: In 2024, the national pipeline company intends to triple the transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan (to 500...

Economic growth remains stable
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 11M23, which is more or less on par with the y-o-y growth in the previous periods (4.6% in 9M23 and 4.9% in 10M23 – both y-o-y). This indicator measures economic activity in the six major sectors of the...

Kazakhstan macro: Solving the budgetary puzzle
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published a complete set of budgetary statistics for 10M23, which included the republican budget, combined budgets of the regions, the National Fund, and the consolidated budget. The republican budget is the cornerstone of the country’s public finances not only du...

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