Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Santos’ New Cabinet
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

After a lot of speculation, and a long wait for a cabinet reshuffle, yesterday President Santos announced the new members of what he called the “Cabinet for Peace”. However it has already been dubbed as the cabinet for the plebiscite, as its main purpose will be to gather the votes for approval o...

Interesting Times
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Apr 2016

The Colombian state still faces three main challenges to achieving peace: the demobilization and reintegration of the FARC fighters; reparations for victims; and rural development. The target date for finalizing the deal was recently postponed to an indefinite date -- but it’s likely that some ag...

Lawyers Will Change (Almost) Everything for Peace
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Mar 2016

Executive Summary Colombia is a country of lawyers. The FARC has finally absorbed that lesson: to grasp power, instead of AK-47 held by poor peasants, it would need norms, regulations and jurisdictions. That is the stuff lawyers live for. In this vein, the FARC’s quintessential product is the Sp...

GDP Results in 4Q
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Mar 2016

Colombian GDP expanded by 3.3% in 4Q 2015; this allowed economic activity to expand by 3.1% for the year as a whole, pretty much in line with the market’s expectations (3%). While this result is still below potential GDP growth, it was among the best in the region, above Mexico, Brazil and Chile....

Bracing for Downturn
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 29 Feb 2016

The economy has fared relatively well, given the bleak global economic outlook and oil price shock. Yet, everything that could go wrong did, and oil prices have now reached unimaginable lows. This, paired with weak external growth, has led us to revise our 2016 GDP growth forecast downward, to 2....

Negative Outlook
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Feb 2016

As expected, Standard & Poor’s recently revised Colombia’s outlook to negative, while affirming the foreign currency rating at BBB. The Ministry of Finance was quick to celebrate the BBB rating as supportive of this government’s economic policy. However, the risks of a subsequent downgrade should...

Is This Going to Work?
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

The official forecast for the central government deficit is 3.6% of GDP (around 30 trillion pesos) this year, up from 3% last year and 2.2% in 2014. But this year’s deficit might be closer to 4.2% of GDP, as keeping it at 3.6% depends on spending cuts. The budget was based on overly optimistic as...

The Year Ahead: Peace, Tax Reform, and Mild Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2015

Colombian GDP grew by 3.2% in Q3 – a reasonably good result, given the economic shock. Strong domestic demand has helped compensate for falling exports. Commerce GDP was up a surprising 4.8% in Q3. Private consumption has climbed on both unusually low unemployment and a still-dynamic credit marke...

What Now?
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Nov 2015

Will Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas leave the government in the next political shuffling, to follow the siren call of a 2018 presidential candidacy? Rumor has it that he might. And the rumor may have merit, since President Juan Manuel Santos’ Partido de la U lacks a credible candidate – and i...

No Man’s Land
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 26 Oct 2015

The October 25 Colombian elections have shown that Colombian politics nowadays is “no man’s land”. Despite the fact that Vargas-Lleras is the front-runner for 2018, these elections left him as a lone ranger, without firm multi-party support. On the other hand, the loss by the political left in Bo...

Peace Colombian Style
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Sep 2015

Yesterday’s announcement on an agreement between the Government and FARC on the issue of transitional justice marks what has been interpreted as a point of no return in the peace negotiations. President Santos went as far as saying that a peace agreement would be signed on the 23rd of March of 2016.

Scary Year Ahead
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Sep 2015

Q2 GDP expansion of 3% was pretty much in Iine with expectations, and showed slowdown to be modest, compared with the predicament of other Latin American economies. We expect 2.9% expansion for 2015, just over the Central Bank’s forecast of 2.8%. But the government is projecting 3.5% growth. That...

Circling a Deal
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2015

A FARC deal may be close, and the focus has turned to intense public discussion over how a deal might be finalized and executed. Yet the difficulties still seem substantial: these basically boil down to political disagreement over whether a special “mini-congress” might be created to ratify any d...

If You Don’t Have It, You Can’t Spend It
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 24 Jul 2015

Executive Summary What does the FARC really want from a peace agreement? We believe the answer can be found in those half dozen border provinces where the guerrillas derive most of their income, and where their investments and wealth are concentrated. We believe prospects for a deal are good: as ...

Concerns for 2016
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Q1 growth surpassed market expectations, but was in line with ours: the 2.8% rate DANE presented was well above the market’s 2.2%-2.4% prediction, but close to our 2.9% number. It’s in any case a good result, given trade shocks and the impacts of the international situation. Sti...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.