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Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025

As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...

Beyond the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2025

The Central Bank has likely come to the end of the monetary tightening cycle, or has reached very close to it, even as its own inflation forecasts remain above target for the relevant horizon. Moreover, these forecasts—highly dependent on demand behavior—still appear optimistic, based on the assu...

The government seeks to contain damage in the INSS CPI and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2025

The government is expected to announce spending cuts in the 2025 budget. The Finance Ministry is set to present President Lula with targeted measures to help meet the 2025 primary fiscal target. On Wednesday, May 21, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad will participate in a public hearing in the Low...

The government prepares 2025 budget cuts and fiscal measures, Congress advances the INSS CPI and tax reform debates, and Lula seeks political recovery with energy reform and a change in the cabinet
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2025

The government is expected to announce budget cuts for 2025. On Thursday, May 22, the government will release the Primary Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report. This is the first report of the year due to the delay in Congress’s approval of the 2025 Federal Budget. Throughout the week, pressu...

Slide Presentation: Colombia in a complex landscape
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 19 May 2025

Read a slide presentation on Colombia's outlook, including fiscal and monetary policy, the country's projected growth outlook, developments in external sectors, the impact of Trump's policies on Colombia’s exchange rate trajectory and trade balance, what's ahead for Ecopetrol, the political cli...

Economics: Familiar official pledges at the Banking Convention fail to address problems in credit access for MSMEs
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2025

At the latest annual Banking Convention, the Sheinbaum administration served up the familiar petitions to facilitate access to credit for MSMEs (micro, small and medium-sized enterprises) and lower interest rates for that segment of the productive sector. Easier said than done, as history has sho...

Politics: Not much action on the legislative front by the end of the period
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2025

Despite considerable time and effort expended in the halls of the legislature and in the mass media, including in the morning presidential press conferences, to giving the impression that the Fourth Transformation was advancing on the legislative front, the reality appears less spectacular. For t...

Israel’s Q1 GDP shows moderate rebound, but recovery remains uneven
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 May 2025

Israel’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 1.9% in Q4 2024, according to preliminary estimates released yesterday by the Central Bureau of Statistics. When adjusted for the drop in import taxes on vehicle purchases—technically included in GDP—the underly...

Trzaskowski wins (?) the first round by a tiny margin according to exit polls. The second will likely be lost.
POLAND · In Brief · 18 May 2025

According to the exit polls, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of presidential elections today. We expected this win (if confirmed by the actual results on Monday or Tuesday), but the exit polls give him only 30.8% vs 29.1% for Nawrocki. The actual election results may be even closer. In our ...

The fork in the road
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2025

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds. Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdog...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close. * April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction. * The White House counted $1trn in ...

April CPI analysis: overseas travel drives inflation surprise; likelihood of rate cut declines
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2025

Israel’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.1% in April, exceeding market expectations for 0.6%-0.7%. The surprise was driven primarily by a 31% jump in overseas travel costs. The sharp increase in flight prices abroad in April likely reflects high demand ahead of the summer season. Since 2023,...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—An avalanche of impeachment proposals and the weakening economy to increasingly challenge Nikol Pashinyan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 May 2025

Misfortunes tend to occur in succession or clusters rather than in isolation, and this applies in full force to PM Pashinyan. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the March announcement that the draft peace deal with Azerbaijan had been finalized, nothing has been signed, while April brought about...

Haddad rules out a broad fiscal package and denies a Bolsa Família hike, the PT signals support for the INSS CPI with a focus on the past administration, and Congress prepares for key committee meetings on tax reform and AI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2025

Yesterday, May 15, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad addressed reports of a possible fiscal adjustment package. In conversations with journalists, he stated that the ministry is actually working on targeted measures to help meet the 2025 fiscal target. The PT leader in the Senate, Senator Rogério ...

Understanding Argentina's current stance on exchange rate and monetary policies
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 May 2025

The economic policies enacted by Argentina’s government since December 2023 have been successful on many fronts, but there are storm clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. The most important achievement so far has been fiscal consolidation. However, while impressive and strictly necessary ...

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