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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Who wants to be president?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jun 2023

President Lasso has been governing under the mechanism of “cross death” for a little over a month and has sent two economic decrees for the approval of the Constitutional Court. The first one reforms income tax collections to benefit people earning below $3,000 per month, which will imply $200 mi...

Kazakhstan offers to broker peace in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

On June 20 President Tokayev said he would like to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and said Kazakhstan would like to help to achieve this. He underscored that Kazakhstan cherishes its relationship with Russia. Russia is an ally of Kazakhstan in the CSTO and a member of the same economic bloc, the Eura...

Russian macro: The economy gradually adjusts to geopolitical changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

Rosstat published 1Q23 GDP statistics (on the production side, so far), and it appears that the y-o-y economic contraction was not as deep as the previous flash estimate suggested. GDP fell by 1.8% y-o-y (instead of the 1.9% reported previously), which is not much compared with the -4.5%, -3.5%, ...

The rapporteur of the fiscal framework made four substantive changes to the text, the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing for Cristiano Zanin today, and State Finance Secretaries will meet today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2023

The Senate will resolve the fiscal framework issue today. A vote in the Senate Committee on Economic Affairs is scheduled for this morning, and the issue will be put to a vote in the plenary this afternoon. The changes made by the rapporteur mean that the text has to return to the House. The vote...

Georgia: National bank holds rates steady, but only temporarily
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 10.50 percent on Jun 21st. This follows the 50bpt rate-cut at the previous meeting in May and, in our view, does not signal a reconsideration of the decision to gradually enter a rate-cutting cycle. Rather, it signifies a c...

Azerbaijan: Central bank holds policy rate constant, signals end of rate-hiking cycle
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.0 percent on Jun 21st. There was some underlying intrigue in the runup to this meeting as monetary authorities were seemingly still not done with the rate-hiking cycle, having been consistently sending hawkish messages to the mark...

Improving inflation as the electoral countdown begins
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

This Saturday, June 24, is the deadline to present the candidates for the primary elections. The extra-long weekend, which extends to today, should have given politicians time to ponder their propositions and options, particularly regarding whether Sergio Massa (SM) will or will not run as a pres...

Politics: AMLO sets the rules with a nudge from Ebrard, but risks to Morena unity remain
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

After Marcelo Ebrard forced his hand the evening of June 6 by announcing he was resigning as minister of foreign affairs to devote all his efforts to campaigning for the Morena presidential nomination, President López Obrador set clearer rules for the campaign to choose his probable successor. Co...

MNB's Virág is hinting on the future path of rate cuts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

At today's rate-setting meeting of the MNB, everything went as expected. The Council decided on a uniform 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the repo rate and reverse FX swaps, leaving the base rate and the low end of the interest rate corridor unchanged. Mainly, the O/N depo rate (= the ...

Economics: April manufacturing data may be just a one-off bounce with further weakness to come
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The industrial activity figures as of April of this year reflect a high increase in manufacturing after registering positive rates but with a deceleration trend in the first months of the year. Manufacturing activity registered an increase of 2.1% with respect to the previous month and 3.2% compa...

Fernando Haddad increases in prestige and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Senate is expected to vote on the fiscal framework with edits. Senators are also analyzing Cristiano Zanin's appointment to the STF. The report on Tax Reform may be submitted. The TSE will adjudicate the case that could render former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for future elections. I...

The CAE will hold a public hearing on the fiscal framework, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will hold a public hearing today on the new fiscal framework. The Senate will likely conclude the vote on the text this week. Also today, the Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions for 17 sectors of...

Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...

Kazakhstan macro: mixed 5M23 results amid puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Given that in recent years, the country’s economy has faced several shocks including the pandemic, protests in early 2022, and Russia’s special military operation, economic trends in Kazakhstan have turned very uneven, being influenced by various base effects. One can also add disputes with Russi...

Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".

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