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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

BSP matches US Fed rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

The Monetary Board formally approved today the 75bp increase in the BSP’s set of policy rates that Governor Felipe Medalla announced two weeks ago. The increase brings the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 5%. In his statement, Governor Medalla acknowledged that the action is aggressive but ne...

Little Gulf bond issuance is expected in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 16 Nov 2022

After quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are largely pausing new borrowing due to non-oil fiscal reforms, the oil windfall and higher borrowing costs. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. Sovereign external debt security issuance has dipped from an average of $40b...

Russia refuses Ukraine's conditions for peace talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2022

On November 15 Russia said that Ukraine's basis for peace talks were unrealistic and unsatisfactory. The Russian Foreign Minister falsely claimed that Ukraine had outright refused peace talks. Ukraine has a 10-point peace plan. This included guarantees for security and a court to try alleged Russ...

Growth with Fiscal Discipline Against a Backdrop of a Weak Global Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

Just like in his first term, starting in 2003, the results of Lula’s term beginning in 2023 will depend on two conditions: a) the behavior of the international economy; and b) overcoming the challenge imposed by the fiscal situation. The main differences are that in 2003, the international econom...

Power grids attacked; Kherson liberated; plans for 2023
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Nov 2022

The liberation of Kherson in mid-November was a turning point in Russia’s war. In February, everyone wondered how quickly Ukraine would fall, but through spring the key element was the ability of Ukraine’s Armed Forces to withstand Russia’s “artillery firewall.” By summer, everyone was wondering ...

The Transition PEC may be submitted today, the PL may still question the results of the election, and Lula is in Egypt for the COP27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

A meeting is scheduled for today between Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), rapporteur of the Budget and the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), and party leaders. The PEC may still be submitted today. Yesterday, a document regarding electronic voting machines requested by the PL wa...

Table of Six summit: More good than bad news
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The leaders of six opposition parties constituting the main stream opposition, dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) met for 8 hours on Monday night, to discuss a new constitution, joint economic program and coalition formation, as well as the implications of the tragic terror strike in Beyoglu, Istanbul...

Polish media claims Poland was hit by Russian missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

On November 15 a Polish media outlet claimed that two Russian missiles hit Poland near the Ukraine border, killing two people. Poland called an emergency meeting of its security council. The government has not officially claimed that Poland was hit by Russian missiles. It could have been Ukrainia...

October’s CPI surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

Inflation in October came in at 0.6% m/m (5.1% y/y up from 4.6% last month), above market expectations which were generally in the 0.4%-0.5% range. Core inflation accelerated to 5% y/y (from 4.7%). Rental prices (OER) accelerated to 5.6% y/y from 5.3%, continuing an upward trend since the beginni...

Q3 GDP: moving into recession but not so much as we have thought
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

GDP shrank by 0.4% qoq but grew by 4.1% yoy, by seasonally adjusted data, in Q3. This means that economy minister Nagy, who indicated a similar number a week ago, was right, whereas the MNB's so far quite reliable-looking WEAI index, on which we based our Q3 forecast, was dead wrong. The WEAI, pr...

China’s new property measures don’t address the fundamental contradiction
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The trade and debt data releases last week, along with today’s economic data, indicate that there has been no change in October in the deterioration in the quality of Chinese growth. In fact the consumption share of growth declined in October even ...

Economics: Strong public finance data cannot hide major risks ahead
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Public finance’s medium term outlook has emerged as a major source of public debate with last week’s passage of the López Obrador administration’s federal spending bill (FSB) for 2023 and the release of public finance results as of September, which appear solid on the back of strong revenue growt...

A loss in central bank efficacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

The Kazakh economy keeps growing at around 3% with no surprises
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2022

The country's Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 10M22 the short-term indicator grew by 3.1% y-o-y delivering no major surprises – as opposed to smaller and less industrialized countries, such as Georgian and Armenia, where an inflow of Russians had much more visible effect. According...

Zelensky visits Kherson
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On November 13 the president visited the city that was recently retaken by Ukraine. He said that there is evidence of 400 war crimes committed by Russia. He said on TV this included murdered civilians. Zelensky said that Russian troops looted shops and even took zoo animals as well as laying mine...

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