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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Biden repeats support for Ukraine over war fears
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The US President spoke to the Ukrainian President on February 13 for an hour. Both leaders agreed to the twin-track approach to avert war: diplomacy and deterrence. The US reiterated that it recognizes Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk as legally Ukrainian. Biden underscored that if there is a Russian i...

Strikes in Kazahstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

On February 9 workers downed tools at the Burghylau Oil Company in Zhanaozen. This city is where strikes led to 100 people being shot by the police in 2011. The strikes are calling for improved wages and conditions. The strikes have affected other energy companies in the region. A nuclear power s...

Summits, packages and futility
TURKEY · Report · 13 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The week’s marque politics event was the first gathering of 6 opposition leaders to discuss the future of post-Erdogan Turkey. The summit produced little in the way of concrete plans, but we shall wait until 28 February to pass final judgement, when the ‘Transition to a Strengthened Parliamentary...

Strong fiscal numbers expected to support bond issuance reduction
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2022

January witnessed a huge fiscal surplus The fiscal surplus reached 18.5bn ILS, as tax revenues increased sharply on huge tax revenues from corporates. The LTM fiscal deficit declined to 3.3% GDP from 4.5% last month. We expect the MoF to reduce weekly bond issuance to 0.8-0.9bn from 1.1-1.2bn at ...

Early presidential election in Turkmenistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 12 the Turkmen government said that an early presidential election shall be held on March 12, 2022. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has ruled the country for 15 years. The 64-year-old has dropped hints that he might retire early from his post. In 2019 he had some health scares.T...

US warns Russia could invade Ukraine anytime but Biden and Putin agree to speak
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 11 the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Russia could launch a full-scale war imminently. The US has warned its citizens in Ukraine to leave by February 13. Some say that Russia would not make an aggressive move now as the Olympics are on until February 20. The US d...

Funny meme on Russian invasion
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

I know our readers appreciate "anecdotal evidence". I think the meme below depicts the best how Ukrainians are reacting to all the news about a potential Russian offensive. Came across this picture on social nets and think it worth sharing. In some cases one funny picture gives more info than doz...

UK Defense Minister in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 Ben Wallace visited Moscow to meet his Russian analogue. He repeated the warning of other Western leaders that a full scale war between Russia and Ukraine would have grave repercussions.The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that tensions in Eastern Europe were not due to Russia....

The South African economy at the beginning of 2022: end of Covid-19 fourth wave and more vaccinated, but low confidence persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Feb 2022

• South African Tourism: Tourism is an important sector of the South African economy (it contributed 3.7% to total GDP in 2019) and it has been one of the sectors most adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Encouragingly, there was an increase in gross travel receipts in the third quarter...

The Federal budget posted a surplus in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues reached nearly R2.1 trln in January and were nearly 39% higher than in January 2021. These revenues accounted for 8.3% of the annual plan, i.e., exactly one-twelfth of it. Note, that tax collection in January is traditionally low a...

GULF WEEKLY: IEA says Gulf could pump more, Aramco could list more equity, PIF could issue after being rated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Feb 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As oil continues to rise, the IEA hinted that the Gulf could make up for shortfalls elsewhere in OPEC+. * Iran nuclear talks reconvened in Vienna amidst expectations that a deal is no more than a few weeks away. * Omicro...

Inflation now the main concern
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Feb 2022

Inflation ended 2021 at 8.5%, its second highest level since the banking crisis of 2003-2004, but below the 10.65% of 2008, when the price of WTI oil increased 37.7% to $99.56 a barrel. Episodes of high inflation in the DR are generally associated with sharp oil price increases, and 2021 was no e...

The PEC on fuels is the main focus in Brasilia, the STF will review the overturning of a Petrobras labor conviction, and Lula is expected to meet with economists to discuss his economic plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2022

Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that he will negotiate for the government's PEC on fuel to be absorbed by PLP 11, which is being analyzed in the Senate. Bolsonaro said that the PEC will certainly be unanimously approved in the House and Senate. Rodrigo Pacheco, Jean Paul Prates and leaders will meet to ...

CPI-inflation, core inflation sharply up in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

Unfortunately, those analysts (including us), who expected the yoy headline rate to move upwards in January have proven right. But even they (including us again) were negatively surprised by how sharply the headline rate actually jumped, to 7.9% yoy from the previous two months' 7.4% yoy level. T...

Russia and Ukraine at a negotiating impasse
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 the Russian delegate said that talks in Berlin had not achieved an agreement. The Ukrainian delegate confirmed this. There were 9 hours of talks on February 10. Germany and France are brokering the talks despite being partial towards Ukraine. The four countries are called the Norma...

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