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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

​The recent discovery of a new Covid variant in Africa, called Omicron, has made hopes and plans for a more relaxed and festive holiday season uncertain. The large number of new mutations seems to indicate an increased dissemination pace, although there is no evidence yet of more severe symptoms....

Exports keep improving
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

As predicted, Indonesia saw a small retreat in its economic growth in Q3 2021. The economy reported an increase of 3.51% from the same period in the previous year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.55%. This is the second positive growth rate for the economy since...

Moro gains traction as a "third candidate" and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

This will be a hectic week in Brasilia. The Senate will continue to discuss the Precatórios PEC. It will also analyze appointments, including that of André Mendonça for the STF. The STF continues to analyze the constitutionality of the Sanitation Framework. Jair Bolsonaro joins the PL. In the eco...

Energy shortage in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

The five former Soviet republics in the region are facing a paucity of energy in winter. Kazakhstan is the largest in area and Uzbekistan is the largest in population. Only the west of Kazakhstan is contending with an energy shortage although ironically that is the oil and gas rich region.On Octo...

Politics: Progressive militarization – a risk to democracy
MEXICO · Report · 29 Nov 2021

There has been growing concern in Mexico over the increasing role of the military in the country’s political life. While in recent decades the military has been called on to play a role in the fight against drug trafficking, historically the army has been politically neutral and its functions lim...

A quick data preview
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The week is packed with important data releases. In this post, we briefly comment on two of the upcoming releases: Q3 NIA/GDP data, which is due tomorrow (Tuesday) and November inflation data, due Friday. We also say a few words on the October trade data, which was released this morning.

Real estate further cooling the economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The Chinese economy faced more downward pressure in October. Industrial output was up 3.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q3. Investment was also weak, with investment growth falling to 8% y/y in the January-October period. The adjusted monthly growth rate should be negative for September and October. ...

Rebound – but with challenges ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Costa Rica’s Presidential elections will be held on February 6th, 2022. Right now there are 27 presidential candidates, none of them have the 40% of the vote, according to recent polls. Elections will gravitate around three subjects: unemployment, the cost of living and corruption in government. ...

The Precatórios PEC should be put to a vote in the CCJ, the Senate should begin analyzing several appointments including André Mendonça’s to the STF, and President Bolsonaro joins the PL tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The probability is for the Precatórios PEC to be approved in the CCJ, as it only needs a simple majority. However, the government is still trying to gather the minimum of 49 votes for the vote in the Plenary. There is no specific date for André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing in the CCJ, but Sena...

Kyrgyz Government parties win election and the opposition cries foul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

On November 28 the results were announced showing that pro-government parties have secured 36 of the 54 party list seats. The Fatherland Party, the Trust Party and the Harmony Party all performed strongly. Together they took over 40% of the vote. Ray of Faith (a moderate Islamic party) also won s...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Nov 2021

Highlights: The Governor stresses lower for longer * The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a real possibil...

The shekel weakens on market volatility; the Governor stressed low rates for longer
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review:The Governor stresses low for longer The MPC emphasized that inflation in Israel is lower than in most countries and within target, allowing for patience regarding tightening. The MPC stressed the downside risks of another Covid wave, which appears more of a ...

Ukrainian President claims there is a coup plot against him
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

On November 26 Zelensky made the extraordinary claim. This is as there is a significant Russian build up of forces close to the Ukrainian Frontier. However, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian Military is able to meet any threat. It is true that the military has been upgraded by almost a generation ...

This time is different
TURKEY · Report · 28 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

This is our second stab at forecasting Turkey’s near-term political and economic future under President Erdogan’s “new economic model” (henceforth, NEM). There is still a dense fog of uncertainty surrounding the modus operandi of the NEM, how the opposition and public will react to it; and of cou...

Good news on Covid, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2021

A so-called Vaccination Week is being held in Hungary since Monday, meaning that people can get Covid vaccines at a big number of 'vaccination points' (typically hospitals) without any previous registration, through extended hours every day. As a result, nationwide vaccination numbers have starte...

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