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Government’s relationship with Congress should improve with the ministerial changes, the Electoral Fund caused tension between Bolsonaro and Dep. Ramos, and Minister Braga Netto’s statement regarding paper ballots was criticized
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Senator Ciro Nogueira will become the first senator in a ministerial position and should facilitate dialogue between the government and the Senate. Despite Deputy Ramos’s threats to review the impeachment requests against Bolsonaro, he will likely not follow through. Congress is considering summo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait downgraded, phone hacking scandal, MBZ visits MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * After dipping following Sunday’s OPEC+ deal, oil has recovered back to last week’s level (Brent $73). * The UAE and Saudi crown princes met in Riyadh to signal their ongoing alliance despite differences. * There were emba...

Upcoming Peru Webinar: Reviewing the next government's policies
PERU · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Join us for our live Zoom Webinar on Thursday, July 29, 2021, as our Peru Political Analyst Dr. Alfredo Thorne discusses the new president's political and economic plans following the inauguration.

Webinar: Chile Political Update
CHILE · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Watch the replay of our "Chile: Political Update​" webinar featuring Dr. Robert Funk. Following upsets in Chile's primaries, Dr. Funk discusses the primary results and their impact on the upcoming elections, the ongoing constitutional process, and the road ahead for Chile. The replay is availa...

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged following the country’s unrest
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2021

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged following the conclusion of its fourth meeting of the year. As such, the repo rate remains at 3.5% and the prime lending rate at 7%. This was the outcome despite the MPC’s view that the o...

The Russian industry up in 2Q21 and 1H21 by 10.1% and 4.4% y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial performance was strong in June as it increased by 10.5% y-o-y. The mining sector was up by 13.8%, and manufacturing grew by 7.7% (both figures are y-o-y also). There are significant base effects and y-o-y growth in the mining will remain strong until year-end (eit...

Bolsonaro will likely make changes to his ministerial team on Monday, the Minister of Defense states there will be no election next year unless the paper ballot system is approved, and the truckers’ strike is unlikely to be approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2021

Ciro Nogueira should become the Chief of Staff, General Ramos should go to the General Secretariat of the Government and Onyx Lorenzoni will head the new Ministry of Employment. The changes strengthen the Centrão’s role in the government ahead of a difficult second semester in the Senate. Ministe...

Belated prime rate increase: up to 8.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2021

The NBU Board increased primed rate by 0.5 ppt up to 8.0%. That happened despite monthly inflation slowed down to +0.2% m/m (+9.5% y/y) in June from +1.3% m/m (+9.5% y/y) in the prior month. From the press-release it’s not clear why the NBU woke up so late, not a month ago. But as we see, the mon...

Watching the recovery
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2021

The economy has gone through a sharp decline, with the extreme lockdown of March 2020, followed by a recovery, a second wave, and then a second recovery. The first recovery had proceeded for 245–322 days while the second recovery has been in motion for 50–78 days. The second downturn was milder t...

Inflation showed more signs of moderation, but more action from the CBR is expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2021

Rosstat reported that the weekly consumer price index during the period ending July 19 turned slightly negative (-0.01%), i.e., into a kind of mini-deflation. As of July 19, inflation MTD was at 0.38% (in 2020 it was almost the same during the comparable period – 0.35%, while inflation YTD reache...

Dep. Ramos believes Bolsonaro is guilty of a crime of responsibility, Augusto Aras reappointed to the PGR for another two years, and Bolsonaro confirms he will veto the increased electoral fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2021

Deputy Ramos’s impeachment threats are unlikely to proceed. While the conflict between Bolsonaro and Ramos does not directly affect the government’s relationship with the Centrão or its allies, it does negatively impact the market. The Senate’s legislative agenda in the second semester will be bu...

The year of uncertainty: Covid, inflation and EU funds
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Moving forward within the year, official sources are painting the picture of an increasingly strong economy with no prospective further disruption from Covid, with the likely annual GDP growth rate over 6% and with growing inflationary pressures. The policy response they are talking about is dist...

Belarus intensifies crackdown on the media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2021

Lukashenka is becoming even more oppressive. On July 20 more journalists and historians were arrested, and the bank accounts of the Belarusian Association of Journalists' were frozen. The same happened to the PEN Club and other NGOs.The police raided the homes of 66 people who are members of vari...

Russia to hold military exercises near Afghanistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2021

On July 19 Moscow stated that it will deploy troops in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to hold joint drills with the armies of those countries. On August 5-10 military drills will be held in Tajikistan. Later drills will be held in Uzbekistan. The stated aim of the drills is to prepare for the eventual...

President Bolsonaro once again criticized the electoral fund, the measure was judicialized in the STF, and the PSDB considers not launching its own presidential candidate next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2021

President Bolsonaro also criticized the Vice President of Congress, Deputy Marcelo Ramos, who responded by requesting access to the impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro. The case in the STF against the electoral fund is unlikely to progress. Although the PSDB is considering not launching a p...

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