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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Saudi-UAE OPEC+ disagreement tests their relationship
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jul 2021

OPEC+ has failed to reach an agreement on tapering and extending its deal because the UAE is arguing for the right to produce more in line with its capacity. This dispute has focused attention on broader divergences between the UAE and its close ally Saudi Arabia. However, we expect a compromise ...

Rising tension in the Black Sea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2021

On July 5 Russia sent a warship equipped with a long range cruise missile to the Black Sea. A NATO exercise is ongoing in the Black Sea at the moment. The NATO exercise is called "Sea Breeze 2021". Russian ships that had been serving off the coast of Syria are also returning to the Black Sea. The...

​A note on Turkey’s foreign policy dilemmas
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2021

A series of minor health problems stayed my hand from updating our audience over the last three weeks. I have fully recuperated, and am proud to dispatch my first Market Brief. While a lot happened during my forced absence, most of it is in the nature of “smoke” rather than fire. Thus, I merely f...

​Some monetary accommodation removed
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021

Some monetary accommodation removed The rate hold decision came as no surprise, as well as the unchanged forward guidance: “The Committee will therefore continue to conduct a very accommodative monetary policy for a prolonged time, using a range of tools as necessary, including the interest rate ...

The Senate should hold a series of confirmation hearings this week, Dep. Lira Miranda and Dep. Ricardo Barros’ meetings in the COVID CPI have been postponed and Dep. Arthur Lira sets up an ambitious agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2021

The Senate Economic Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for economist Fernanda Guardado today. The Ministry of Health’s supervisor of the Covaxin contract, Regina Célia Silva Oliveira, will testify in the COVID CPI on Tuesday. Dep. Miranda and Dep. Barros’ meetings have not yet been resche...

​The CBRT and the Stages of Grief
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2021

Consumer prices rose by 1.9% in June, markedly higher than the market consensus of around 1.4%, raising the 12-month rate to 17.5% from 16.6% in May. Producer prices also rose sharply once again, by 4%, m/m, with the 12-month rate jumping to 42.9% from 38.3% a month earlier, and the spread betwee...

Ukraine permits the sale of farmland for the first time in 20 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021

On July 1 a new law took effect which allowed people to buy and sell land. The law was demanded by the IMF as a condition for a loan. However, the land can only be sold to Ukrainians. A citizen can buy up to 100 hectares. As of 2024 auctions will take place allowing agribusinesses to buy up to 10...

Vaccine rollout in Russia as infections surge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021

Russians are reluctant to get vaccinated. On June 30 only 16% of people had had at least one dose. In the UK, by contrast, the figure is over 80%. Russia has the highest number of doctors per capita in the world so it should be doing much better. People in Russia are being vaccinated at a rate of...

BoI likely to suggest that bond purchasing may not be extended
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jul 2021

Highlights: Private consumption slows Credit card purchases declined by 3.6% in May following an 18% increase from January to April. We estimate that credit card purchases declined by 3% m/m (sa) in June, by looking at the weekly data provided through 29.6. Chain store sales declined by 6.6% in M...

Housing sector developments: a recap
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2021

There is a well-established consensus among Turkey watchers that the Turkish economy went through a massive credit-fueled/construction-driven economic boom, which has accelerated --or become vividly patent-- after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In other words, Turkey is one of those countries...

The week in brief
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2021

June PMI – both overall and the output subindex -- rose to over 50 in June. As we wrote last week for confidence indicators, we think this is primarily a temporary, post-lockdown rebound, and we should see a visible slowdown in economic activity during the second half. Trade data for May and J...

Belarus shuts border with Ukraine but encourages illegal immigration into Lithuania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2021

On July 2 Lukashenka announced that the border with Ukraine is being shut with immediate effect. He claimed that terrorists are infiltrating into his country from Ukraine and it is all a Western sponsored coup plot. He tried a similar trick in 2020 saying that Russian mercenaries who he had arres...

Reality bites
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new MTFF, inconsistent with keeping investment grade in place, is proposing a drastic increase in fiscal space for the next decade. The central government deficit should fall from 8.6% of GDP in 2021 to 7% in 2022, and then converge, by 2027, to deficits of 2.5%-2.7%. But we show that the “b...

Taliban menace Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2021

On July 2 the US Secretary of State met the Tajik and Uzbek foreign ministers. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan border Afghanistan. They discussed their security.The Turkmen foreign minister was conspicuous by his absence. Turkmenistan borders Afghanistan. Why was the Turkmen foreign minister not invite...

The opposition submitted a criminal report on President Bolsonaro to the STF, as well as another impeachment request, the Tax Passport is no longer on the Senate agenda and the House is optimistic about its agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2021

Minister Rosa Weber rejected the PGR’s request to wait until after the conclusion of the COVID CPI before making a decision on the criminal report. The PGR will likely request more time to review the case. The House hopes to vote on Tax Reform before the parliamentary recess that should take plac...

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