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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Controversy over the Appreciation of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2021

The financial market has a tendency to forecast that the Real will get stronger in 2021. We don’t deny that international causes might lead to this result. The elevation of international commodity prices is producing gains in the terms of trade, causing the real exchange rate to appreciate, and t...

EU Parliament proposes blocking Nord Stream
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 21 the EU Parliament voted that Nord Stream 2 should be blocked due to the arrest of Alexei Navalny. The Members of the European Parliament demanded sanctions on Russian oligarchs and the president's cronies.The Parliament's votes is only a recommendation. The EU is not obliged to give...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain issues bond, Qatar’s Q3 GDP rebounds, Covid surges in Dubai
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Biden will consult with allies before dealing with Iran, but his key nominees support the JCPOA. * Dubai cancelled live entertainment as Covid surges, although it is 2nd g...

The South African Reserve Bank remains put: missed opportunity or level-headedness?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

South Africa’s (SA) Monetary Policy Committee met on Thursday, January 21, for the first time in 2021. In line with the Bloomberg economists’ survey consensus, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates unchanged at 7% and 3.5% for the prime rate and repo rate, respectively. This is follow...

The Russian budget: decent execution in 2020 sets a good base for 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending massively increased in December, and in 2020 as a whole, the government expenditures exceeded R22.8 trln. In December alone, the government allocated 17.1% of the annual figure. Both figures appeared well above the expected. Meanwh...

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan agree on oil field
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 21 the two nations signed an agreement on an oil field under the Caspian Sea. The memorandum of mutual intention agrees to develop the Dostluq Undersea Field. The two nations used to have separate names for it but they have agreed on Dostluq now. It is believed to hold over 50 million ...

FDI in Russia lowest since 1994
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

On January 19 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) published statistics showing that foreign investment in 2020 was the lowest in 26 years. There was only USD 1.4 billion of FDI in 2020. That is partly owing to coronavirus. FDI in 2019 was USD 29 billion.However, the long-term pattern on FDI in Russia ...

Critical mass of Covid vaccinations expected by end-summer
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jan 2021

Our new quarterly forecast is published in an era of unusually high uncertainty. The key unknowns are the development and success of Covid vaccinations globally, the implementation of the new rule-of-law legislation in Europe and the outcome of the 2022 parliamentary election domestically. Given ...

Recovery, but with significant risks
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Economic recovery resumed in November after October’s pause, although less intensely than in August and September. Although the 0.3% 12-month variation was helped by a low comparison base due to the violent protests of Q4 2019, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased by 1.4% m/m. In t...

MPC: Words vs. actions, redux
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2021

At today’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged, at 17%, in line with the consensus expectation (see chart). The Bank tried to balance this inaction with more “hawkish” amendments to the MPC statement, which, along with a stronger emphasis on the difficult in...

Prime rate moves into negative territory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6%. The decision was delivered despite consumer inflation has already sped up to 6.3% y/y in January, according to the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Already in February inflation will break 7% ceiling. This means real policy rate from now will be in ne...

Data watch: Gross international reserves
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

Last year, gross international reserves (GIR) surged 25% to end the year at close to $110 billion. This is remarkable considering the unprecedented global scale and severity of the covid19 crisis. While short-term capital exited emerging markets as in past crises, this time around in the Philippi...

The Government of Panama taps the bond market (between US$ 2 billion and US$2.5 billion), and the IMF approves a PLL for the equivalent of US$2.7 billion
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

There was good news for the Government of Panama's finances at the beginning of the year. First, the IMF Executive Directorate agreed to a two-year Precautionary Liquidity Line of Credit (PLL) of US$ 2.7 billion with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, with US$ 1,350 million available for the fi...

Bogus presidential debates
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

Navalny video accuses Putin of using USD 1.35 billion in bribes to build a palace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 19 Alexei Navalny's supporters published a video showing Putin's house Paraskoveyevka. The house is by the Black Sea. The money for its construction was allegedly plundered from the treasury. Aerial footage of the palace was released. It is unclear how the footage was obtained since th...

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