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Georgian Elections-First Thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2024

The much-anticipated Parliamentary Elections took place yesterday in a much calmer environment than thought and the Central Election Commission has announced that Georgian Dream has confidently won. With 99.9% of the votes counted, the results are the following: Georgian Dream" - 54.93% with 89 m...

Another weather devastation hits Manila
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024

Despite the government of President Bongbong Marcos spending about half a trillion pesos for flood control projects in just over two years, and there are about 5,000 of them, nothing seems to have come out of such massive public spending. Those projects were nothing to tropical storm Kristine, wi...

S&P affirmed its BBB-/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024

This was very much in line with our expectation, but apparently not so with everyone else's. The fact that EURHUF ran slightly above 404 (yes, this page can be found on the internet) ahead of the decision shows quite clearly just how much the government needs to watch its steps with regard to com...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi FDI rises, IMF updates forecasts, Gaza talks to resume in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Oct 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF’s latest forecasts show the GCC will fall into deficit in 2024. * Moody’s argues that if AAOIFI Shariah Standard 62 is implemented it will slow sukuk issuance. * Investment banking fees in the region surged by 27%...

Today is the final day for campaign advertising for the second-round municipal elections, the three branches of government meet to discuss parliamentary fund transfers next week, and the succession in Congress is expected to gain traction
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2024

Today is the final day for campaign advertising for the second-round municipal elections. Additionally, the last debate, hosted by TV Globo, will take place tonight between the mayoral candidates in the runoff. The election is set for Sunday, October 27. Another topic that may progress next week ...

BRICS Summit in Kazan to show Russia is not isolated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2024

On October 22-24, the BRICS annual summit took place in Russia’s fifth largest city, Kazan. This is the capital of Tatarstan, a Russian region that is a homeland for the Tatar indigenous ethnic group, whose main religion is Sunni Islam. There was a tight security cordon in Kazan, obliging schools...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2024

After the end-September rally, the FX market recently remained relatively stable. The ruble hovers around USD/RUB 97 level and looks slightly undervalued. Technically, it may moderately appreciate in the coming weeks, especially if the CBR decides to raise the key rate. However, the budgetary spe...

The CCJ approved the work schedule for the Tax Reform bill, the news rules for the parliamentary fund transfers should be finalized today, and Lula will meet with government leaders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2024

Yesterday, as expected, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved the work schedule for the bill to regulate the tax reform, presented by Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), the rapporteur for PLP 68/24. According to a joint statement from the three branches of government, the ne...

Another setback for the Executive: the Budget Committee returns the MEF Proposal... we analyze the options of both groups
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2025 budget project, approved by the cabinet on October 15 and presented the same day to the Assembly, was returned (not rejected) after the first debate in the Legislative Assembly. The 15 members of the budget committee requested the Minister of Economy and Finance to modify his proposal to...

Moldovan presidential election and EU referendum analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Moldova has been labelled by observers a “geopolitical swing State”, at the crossroads between the West and Russia. Last weekend’s events confirmed there is a clear social divide over the future of this small former Soviet Republic bordering Ukraine, which constitutes another less-known scenario ...

Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...

The presidents of the STF, House and Senate meet to discuss the parliamentary fund transfers bill, the rapporteur of the bill should submit it by next week, and the voting schedule for the Tax Reform bill is expected to be outlined today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2024

This afternoon, the President of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Luís Roberto Barroso, and Justice Flávio Dino will meet with the Presidents of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to discuss the bill that sets new rules for parliamentary fund t...

Rates are held today, as expected: here are the key messages from the Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2024

The base rate was held by the Monetary Council unchanged at 6.5%, the corridor also remaining +/-1%-point around the base rate, as widely expected. This time around, Mr. Virág had left for the IMF/World Bank annual meeting, and so the post-meeting press/analyst conference was held by Csaba Kandrá...

Congressional leaders should meet to discuss parliamentary fund transfers, Lula has not yet chosen whom he will support in the Lower House succession, and the ministerial team may change to improve communication with the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2024

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL) are expected to meet with Senator Angelo Coronel (PSD-BA) this morning to discuss the bill proposing new rules for parliamentary fund transfers. President Lula (PT), in an effort to maintain good relations with the ...

Internal security to the fore; Congress approves pension reform; BCRP to pause in November
PERU · Report · 22 Oct 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the recent security issues challenging Congress, and President Dina Boluarte. Then we summarize and analyze the new pension fund reform published on September 24th. Finally, we discuss the decision by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserv...

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