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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More problems for Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2020

The arrest of Fabrício Queiroz, a former aide to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ) during the time he served as state deputy in Rio de Janeiro (RJ), does not involve President Jair Bolsonaro. However, it does bring constraints to the Planalto Palace for the alleged involvement of the pre...

EU sanctions over Crimea prolonged by a year
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2020

On June 18 the EU decided to extend sanctions on Russia by 12 months. The sanctions are over Crimea. Russia says that Crimea is an integral part of its territory. The EU disputes this. Most exports from Crimea are banned. The EU cannot export most items to Crimea. EU companies cannot invest in Cr...

Russian consumer spending close to pre-crisis levels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2020

On June 17 Sberbank released statistics for consumer spending last week. Spending on items in the first week of June was only 8% below what it was in June 2019. In the second week of June spending on goods was 4% above the same week in 2019. Spending on services is still lower than usual. Rosstat...

Armistice between the powers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2020

The decision of the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, to ask for the breach of bank secrecy of federal deputies Bia Kicis (PSL-DF), Carla Zambelli (PSL-SP), Cabo Junio Amaral (PSL-MG), Otoni de Paula (PSC-RJ), Daniel Silveira (PSL-RJ), Carolina de Toni (PSL-SC), Al...

BCRP asks Congress to shelf Bill calling for loan and interest payments moratorium
PERU · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

Last night, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru (BCRP)’s Governor, Julio Velarde, sent a strong letter to the Head of Congress’ Consumer Defense Commission and asked to shelf the draft Bill that proposes to suspend bank loan and interest payments for 120 days.He said that this bill instead of benef...

The new CNE: a political offensive
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On 12 June 2020, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice hastily appointed the new leadership of the National Electoral Council (CNE), ahead of its self-imposed deadline. It also instructed the new CNE to reform the Organic Electoral Processes Law, a duty that can only be discharged by the National Assem...

Kyrgyzstan's prime minister resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 15 the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan resigned over a criminal investigation into corruption. Muhammadkalyi Abylgaziev said his resignation was because the issue was distracting from the government's agenda and his action should not be taken to indicate culpability. He allegedly allocated r...

US and EU impose new sanctions on Russia and other Syria backers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 17 the United States' and EU's new sanctions on Syria's supporters came into effect. The sanctions penalize any company, institution or individual that does business with Syria. In the US the law is called the Caesar Act.Russia will be impacted by this as well as China, Iran, Iraq, Lebano...

Russia stands by Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 16 Moscow said that Russia supports Iran in the face of enhanced US sanctions. The Iranian economy was indisputably reeling even before coronavirus. The US is seeking to extend an arms embargo on Iran. Moscow described the embargo as unlawful. Russia stands by Iran her ally in Syria.Russi...

The Federal Police operation reaches presidential allies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2020

The Federal Police (PF) acted today on search and seizure warrants, under Operation “Lume”, against allies of President Jair Bolsonaro for alleged involvement in anti-democratic demonstrations. The operation was authorized by the Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, w...

The economy may have bottomed in April-May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial production decreased in May and 5m20 by 9.6% and 2.4% y-o-y. In the mining sector respective figures stood at -13.5% and -3.4% y-o-y, while in manufacturing it was not that deep (-7.2% and -1.4% y-o-y respectively). Note that in April contraction in manufacturing ...

Ruble sovereigns: Еxisting market capacity not very large
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2020

The Russian Finance Ministry is very close to setting a new quarterly record in terms of primary OFZ placement. To beat the previous one, the government needs to raise about R12 bln during the next two auction days. However, even a successful second quarter is not enough to cover all the financin...

Fiscal rule suspended
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2020

The government formally asked the external committee of the fiscal rule to suspend the rule in 2020 and 2021. During a meeting that took place on June the 15th, the committee unanimously voted in favor of the government’s request. Its members consider the leeway given by the parametric deviations...

China virus check – week ending June 15
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Rising coal consumption in the power industry and slightly positive operations for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion was surprisingly weak. 3) Expressway traffic was generally positive W/W...

Peru macroeconomic forecasts
PERU · Forecast · 16 Jun 2020

We have kept our 2020 growth forecasts unchanged at-17% oya and raised our 2021 on the back of a slightly stronger rebound. We have also made some adjustments to our monthly GDP estimates. We still see 2020 Q2 growth at -27% oya and -70% q/q, saar, despite the deeper fall in April (by -40.5% from...

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