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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New tensions amid the armistice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2020

This week, President Jair Bolsonaro managed to advance in the armistice between the powers. In addition to signaling dialogue with the presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Dias Toffoli, the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, the victory achieved by the def...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain reserves collapse, Oman downgraded, Qatar affirmed, Hajj curtailed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain belatedly published 3 months of FX reserves, which hit a record low in April. * Moody’s downgraded Oman to Ba3 (Negative) despite expectations of GCC support. * F...

Capital flight and Hong Kong fund management
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Jun 2020

One of the concerns about the National Security Law is its impact on China’s role as an international financial center. The legal structure for financial transactions will not be directly affected. However, any significant contravention of global norms for individual protestors may face oppositio...

Russia voting on constitutional reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2020

On June 25 Russia began voting in a referendum on constitutional amendments. Polls are open till July 1. The week long referendum is intended to facilitate social distancing but also to boost turnout. Some people are allowed to vote online. The amendments would allow Putin to serve another two te...

MNB vice governor says another base rate cut is likely in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2020

MNB vice governor Barnabás Virág spoke in a radio interview this morning. He expressly said he would propose another 15 bps reduction of the 0.75% base rate at the next rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council on July 21. He also added that this will be the last cut, as the MNB, unlike other ...

Bolsonaro signals for an understanding between the powers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2020

In a ceremony held today at the Planalto Palace, the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, stated that the “understanding” with the presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Dias Toffoli, of the House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), signals that “better ...

Ukraine webinar featuring Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy - What's next after the IMF?
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jun 2020

​Ukraine webinar featuring Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy - What's next after the IMF?​ Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy​ discuss the political and economic prospects for Ukraine as it benefits from an IMF Standby Arrangement and faces the Covid-19 pandemic.

COVID 2nd wave lowers our growth forecast
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2020

Industrial output rose 4.4% y/y in May, up 0.5 pps from April, comparable to its pre-pandemic level, and was down just 1.5 pps from Q4 2019. Investment was up 3.9% y/y, and up 3.1 pps from April, down 1.5 pps from Q4. Government investment is the main force lifting overall investment growth. ...

​Surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020

The Monetary Board (MB) unexpectedly cut policy rates by 50bp today, bringing the key overnight borrowing rate to 2.25%. It is evident from its statement that the MB is worried about economic growth. Banks are not lending as hoped, with monies parked in the BSP’s deposit facilities rising from a ...

IMF downgrades global and Russia’s growth, while Russia keeps muddling through in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020

As IMF downgraded its 2020 global growth forecast to -4.9% (down from -3.0% previous forecast) Russia couldn’t remain unaffected. It now appears that the Russian GDP is set to shrink by 6.6% this year (down from -5.5%). IMF sees Russia doing better than the US (GDP down by 8.0%) and the EU (-10.2...

​MPC: Some restraint, at last
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jun 2020

At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (weekly-repo) at 8.25%, contrary to the consensus expectation (including ours) of another 25-50 bps reduction. Recall that this is the first pause since the MPC started the easing cycle right after the appoi...

Abinader (opposition) could be heading towards a first round victory in July 5
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020

In the last three days, the three most reputable polling firms in the country published the results of their most recent polls on electoral preference and all indicate that Luís Abinader (PRM and allies) could be heading towards a first round victory in the July 5 elections. All the surveys were ...

South Africa’s Supplementary Budget 2020 aims to begin the process of drastically consolidating government finances
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jun 2020

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni yesterday placed on the table the country’s 2020 Supplementary Budget, which is described as a bridge to the 2020 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement that is to be presented in October 2020, as is the norm. The previous budget, Budget 2020, was presented almost exact...

Pressure increases for the extension of the R$ 600 aid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2020

After the president of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), defended the extension of emergency aid in the amount of R$ 600 for two more months, and the emergence of the movement “Basic Income That We Want”, which unites 163 civil society movements, today it was the turn of the MDB, thro...

Revising down 2020 oil forecast following new U.S. sanctions
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020

We revise down our oil forecasts for 2020 owing to new sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on June 18 and the chilling effect we expect them to have. Our forecast now has output averaging 465,000 barrels per day in 2020, compared with our previous 20...

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