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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Data on March and April signals deep Covid-19 impact, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2020

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell very sharply in April. The figures were -0.6% mom, 2.4% yoy, the latter down from 3.9% yoy in March. Instinctively, one could think that the big drop must have been due to the current general economic weakness, but the situation is more complicated than tha...

China’s “bridges to nowhere”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 May 2020

The success of China’s emergence from the virus/trade war recession will depend on the size, type and success of any stimulus measures. Whatever stimulus package gradually emerges will follow several years of government restriction on credit flows following the “hangover” from the 2009 fiscal sti...

A delicate, short-lived disconnect between politics and economics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 May 2020

Countries that entered the COVID-19 crisis strong are likely to emerge stronger, and those that entered weak may leave in an even weaker state. The crucial issue will be actions during the crisis. Three issues common to all strategies are: 1) saving the health care system and preventing the pande...

Moldovan Court blocks loan from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2020

On May 7 the Moldovan Constitutional Court ruled that a USD 216 m loan from Russia is against the constitution. The decision cannot be appealed. The loan was a lifeline for Moldova which is the poorest country in Europe. The 10 year loan would help to reduce the deficit which is ballooning alarmi...

Ukraine formally appoints former President of Georgia to new role
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2020

On May 7 Ukraine announced that Mikhail Saakashvili was being appointed to head the National Reform Council. The council is there for strategic planning. The move had been trailed in the media for a week - after Saakashsvili revealed the imminent move.Saakashvili was the President of Georgia duri...

Stand-By instead of Extended Fund Facility: anything wrong?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 May 2020

Ukrainian media reported ‘Breaking News’ yesterday. The IMF does not discuss 3-year Extended Fund Facility program for Ukraine anymore and proposed instead an 18-month Stand-By arrangement. Reporters cited Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, who mentioned this at pre...

Visit to the Supreme Court adds institutional stress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro, accompanied by Ministers Paulo Guedes (Economy), André Mendonça (Justice) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat), in addition to business representatives, walked from the Planalto Palace to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) for a “courtesy visit”. According to Bol...

Negative Q1 GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 May 2020

Although the Luzon-wide lockdown began only in the last two weeks of Q1, fear of covid-19 infection and international travel bans imposed earlier in the quarter had exacted their toll on the domestic economy which contracted 0.2% during the period[1]. GDP figures[2] released today show domestic d...

​Cosmic Strategist: Rate hike or capital controls?
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 May 2020

These are personal views of the Cosmic Strategist as channeled by Atilla Yesilada, and not the house view.His Cosmicness is extremely frightened by the slow-motion currency attack that is in progress, maintaining it shall not end by itself “at some point in the near future”. To the contrary, self...

Moves to ease the crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2020

The appointment of Fernando Marcondes de Araújo Leão to be the general director of the Department of Works Against Droughts (DNOCS), replacing José Rosilonio Magalhães de Araújo, signals that the negotiations of President Jair Bolsonaro with the centrist parties (Centrão) are advancing. Araújo Le...

The fiscal deficit surges in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2020

The fiscal deficit in April reached 14.9bn ILS, compared to 4.9bn in April 19. The deficit in the LTM reached 4.8% GDP, up from 4.0% one month ago. The MoF expects fiscal revenues to decline by 60bn ILS (4% GDP) compared to the original forecast of January 20, as a result of Covid-19 crisis. In a...

Russian home prices due to fall 20-30%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2020

On May 5 a Russian housing think tank said that house prices are due to fall by up to 30% by the end of 2021. The Institute of Urban Economics made that prediction. This a fairly reliable organization. It is an NGO advising stakeholders in urban development processes. The government provides subs...

Tense climate between Bolsonaro and the press
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2020

The atmosphere between President Jair Bolsonaro and the press became more tense today. During a conversation with journalists near the Alvorada Palace, in Brasília (DF), Bolsonaro denied that he is interfering politically in the Federal Police (PF) and became irritated when asked if he had reques...

US Navy patrols near Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2020

On May 4 an American and a British warship sailed into the Barents Sea. This is near the Russian Arctic. The ships stayed in international waters. NATO has not patrolled here for over 30 years. The US Navy said it needs to practice operating in this environment. Russia aware of the growing import...

Russia and COVID-19: confusing words – perplexing actions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2020

Given that in the second half of April the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Russia fluctuated around 5K people, many officials and experts hoped that this number could come down going forward, thus bringing some hope that the lockdown measures could be gradually eased in mid-May. However, in...

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