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We expect a rate hike today, against market expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Nov 2018

We expect a rate hike today, against the overwhelming consensus expecting a rate-hold decision. A rate hike will be supported by inflation entrenchment, fairly steady growth, a tight labor market/wage pressure and recent shekel depreciation. Although the MPC may decide to wait for the new Governo...

Walking the tightrope
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Not only did the Colombian guerrilla penetration of the Orinoco Mining Belt and its attack against a column of Venezuelan troops inside the Venezuelan border last November 4 cast light on what a tough time Maduro is having controlling the mining region and Venezuela’s borders, it also caused shoc...

Russia attacks Ukrainian naval ships: President calls for martial law
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

Military scenario that we considered in our September report (“IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky”, 11 Sep 2018) started unfolding in quite unexpected manner. Media reported that Russians attacked Ukrainian naval ships in the Sea of Azov (reportedly three naval vessels have been captur...

Armenia probes Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

The Armenian Government has launched a probe into Gazprom Armenia. It is alleged that there has been corruption and tax evasion. The two offences are widespread in Armenia. Gazprom Armenia is affiliated to the Russian semi state gas giant. The sum involved in the alleged corruption and tax evasio...

A perverse improvement in fundamentals
TURKEY · Report · 25 Nov 2018

The title for this week's report refers to perceptions of improved political stability as well as of economic fundamentals – of a perverse kind -- because especially the latter hugely worry us in the medium-term, but could do wonders for investors in the very short-term. As President Erdogan a...

Moldova may lose EU aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2018

Last week the European Parliament voted to scrap financial support to Moldova. However, the decision is not final. The EU suspects that Moldovan politicians and bureaucrats 'disappeared' USD 1 Billion in 2015. The EU thinks that Moldova is not going anything serious about embezzlement and tax eva...

Moody's kept Baa3/Stable rating for Hungary unchanged yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

Moody's failed to improve the government's Baa3/Stable rating on the occasion of this year's last revision date for any major rating agency yesterday. Analysts typically did not expect an upgrade, but a number of them expected an improvement of the rating outlook to positive, just as it happened ...

Slow Ukrainian economic growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

The Ukrainian State Statistical Service declared that GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018 was 2.8%. This may seem impressive but it is lower than for the previous two quarters. Ukraine's budget is predicated on growth of at least 3%. The World Bank predicts that Ukrainian growth will slow ev...

CIS essential business briefing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2018

* Russian tensions with Atlantic nations increase, but so do defense sales to Asia * Ukraine geographical and religious splits deepen, while IMF program to be reaffirmed * Georgian presidential elections show weakness for Georgian Dream

Oil price dispute between Russia and Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2018

Russia and Belarus are not making progress in their negotiation over oil prices. The Belarussian Ambassador to Russia has said so publicly. Belarus gets most of her energy from Russia. Energy for industrial use is a sore point for Belarus. The Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan ...

The Reserve Bank hikes the rate to contain inflationary expectations.
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2018

In its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2018, the South African Reserve Bank decided to increase the repurchase (repo) rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.75%, effective from 23 November 2018. This moves the bank lending (prime) rate to 10.25% from 10%. The SARB last made a cha...

Rising fiscal stimulus and support for the private sector
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Nov 2018

To understand how the Chinese banking system is coping with the economic downturn, we spoke to 15 banks in 10 cities. Despite concerns about expansion of debt, our November 2018 survey of fifteen banks shows that banks are lending for infrastructure projects in a clear bid to stimulate the econo...

Good, not great
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 23 Nov 2018

Local moods have soured over the past several months on strong external headwinds, i.e., the triple whammy of US monetary tightening, surging oil prices and an escalating US-China trade war, and a collection of weaker economic data, including lower GDP growth and higher inflation. Economic perfo...

Budget 2019 approved: Expect the IMF wire
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2018

In 6:01 AM Kyiv time the parliament approved spending plan 2019. The authorities were in rush (probably under pressure of some deadline) and spent the whole night juggling with spending numbers. Eventually they have approved budget with the key figures – deficit, general revenues and spending – p...

Tajik dam starts to generate electricity.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2018 · 1 response

The Rogun Dam in Tajikistan has started to generate electricity. The first segment of the dam has been completed. The rest will take a projected 10 years. This is a major step for the poorest country in the former USSR.Tajikistan's neighbor Uzbekistan had lobbied hard against the dam since it wil...

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