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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: Recent economic indicators suggest that 2024 GDP growth will break slightly below 2%
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024
The economy continued to slow during the second quarter. After first quarter aggregate demand slowed to 2.6% YoY, indicators for April revealed a further loss of momentum, with the monthly GDP proxy (0.9% yoy) sputtering to its lowest reading in 30 months. Industrial activity only crawled 0.6% hi...
Likely scenario: one rate cut for the year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024
As expected by the markets, the BSP decided to keep its policy rates steady at 6.5%, the highest in 17 years last Thursday, June 27. Accordingly, interest rates on overnight deposit and lending facilities remained unchanged at 6.0% and 7%, respectively. Now focusing on the exchange rate path, the...
The House Working Group on Tax Reform may present its report on July 3, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill should present his report this week, and the CCJ will discuss the PEC on the Central Bank’s autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024
The report from the House Working Group on Tax Reform regulation is expected to be presented on Wednesday, July 3. The House President, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is attempting to secure the approval of the text in the plenary next week. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-MG), the rapporteur of the bill ...
PM Orbán and two other European politicians launched a new European Parliament faction today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024
PM Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP, together with Czechia's ANO party (which left the liberal Renew faction in June) and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ, so far member of the radical right-winger Identity and Democracy faction) announced the establishment of a new party group within the European Parliament, und...
Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response
At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...
Will the Bank of Jamaica pivot avoid a policy mistake? IMF lauds resilience just as Hurricane Beryl approaches
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Jul 2024
In an interesting piece of timing, on Friday, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), in its own words, “pivots to easing monetary policy” just as the IMF lauded Jamaica’s “resilience” reforms literally the day before Beryl was upgraded to a hurricane. The BOJ cited as its reason that the May 2024 annual i...
Election Monitor VI: SA launches its 7th Administration; Ramaphosa’s second term is a new chapter in a rapidly shifting political structure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2024
After weeks of socio-political anxiety and following intense political horse trading, President Ramaphosa unveiled the composition of his 2nd Cabinet Ministers. Unlike his first term, his party could not secure sufficient voter support to govern alone. Instead, the ANC decided to invite a wide ra...
Business and consumer sentiment less optimistic in Q2 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Jul 2024
Notwithstanding the country’s real economic growth of 5.7 percent in Q1 2024, business sentiment in the Philippines turned out less optimistic in Q2 of 2024, with the overall confidence index (CI) recorded at 32.1 percent from 33.1 percent in Q1 of the current year, as reported in the Business Ex...
Pace of bond issuance remains steady, MoF confident in reaching its fiscal target
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jul 2024
1. Private consumption growth has decelerated but the level of consumption remains strong. 2. The pace of government bond issuance remains steady, and the MoF is reporting robust tax revenues in June. 3. We expect a rate-hold decision next week on elevated geopolitical risks.
Hello early elections, bye-bye ESP?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2024
The main opposition leader Ozel wants early elections before or by end-2025. If Erdogan turns down the offer, CHP will not support any early election legislation. This means, Erdogan must either take up Ozel on his offer or scramble to find 360 votes in the Grand Assembly to send a new constituti...
Pace of government debt issuance remains steady, tax revenues remain strong in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jun 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues to operate in Gaza targeting specific areas. The missile barrage from Lebanon has decreased somewhat compared to the previous week. There is a vague renewed initiative for a cease-fire with Hamas, according to the US. Although the Supreme Court ruled that the ultra-o...
Ukraine signs defense pacts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jun 2024
On June 27 President Zelensky was in Brussels where he signed defense pacts with the EU, Lithuania and Estonia. The agreements deal with 9 areas of security and defense policy. The EU's statement affirmed its unflagging support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. This is presumably designed to ...
Bad news everywhere
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 2 responses
The nuts and bolts of the 2024 MTFF have little to do with the much-required process of fiscal consolidation. It turns out most of the negative rumors we’d been hearing were true. A root problem behind the mess was over-optimistic initial revenue estimates. The central government originally expec...
The view from Washington
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jun 2024
I was invited to a conference organized by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington to launch its new China initiative. The conference featured Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, along with Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under Trump; Bonnie Lin of the th...
Lula spoke about the Minas Gerais federal debt in an interview, he also discussed the 2026 presidential election, and Congress should continue to discuss payroll tax relief next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2024
President Lula (PT) gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of interest to the market. According to him, the bill that will create an alternative for the debt of Minas Gerais should be completed within fifteen days. Regarding 2026, Lula said that the only scenario in which he cou...