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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco equity offering raises $11bn, Kuwait crown prince appointed, Oman spending down -2% in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude partly recovers to $80, after initially bearish sentiments about the OPEC+ deal. * Qatar is hosting more ceasefire consultations as Biden’s Gaza plan faces pushback. * Qalibaf and Ahmadinejad added their names...
Zelensky in France and Qatar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
On June 5 the Ukrainian President met the Emir of Qatar to discuss ending the war. Qatar voted to condemn the Russian invasion but has brokered the return of some Ukrainian children from Russia. Qatar is a back channel between the warring nations. On June 6 Zelensky was in Normandy for the 80th ...
New mobilization law: shifting towards a militarized society
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Ukraine is implementing new mobilization rules. The recruiting rules in 2022 were very lenient for a full-scale war of attrition. In the early days of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians mobilized voluntarily, and volunteers comprised the core of the army that defeated the Russians in 2022. However,...
Pacheco requested a study on the impact of the MP on PIS/Cofins credits, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report next week, and Antonio Rueda assumes the presidency of the União Brasil on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Yesterday, during the leaders' meeting, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said that he requested a study on the MP's impact from the Senate consultancy. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), rapporteur of the bill that deals with payroll tax relief for companies and city halls, will...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Does the Uzbek sum's appreciation have legs?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jun 2024
The Uzbekistani sum has generally been the weakest currency in the CCA region for many years for reasons related to powerful underlying relative price movements that have dominated the sum's movements since the opening of the economy in 2017. Hence, any episode of a more sizable strengthening of ...
South Africa’s current account turns favorable as terms of trade improve in Q1 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2024
The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2024, while South Africa’s current account continued its trend of consecutive deficits since Q2 2022, the deficit was noticeably smaller than that of the preceding quarter. The defic...
The government completed the acquisition of Budapest Airport
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
Just as expected, the government has acquired a majority stake in Budapest Airport, the Economy Ministry announced yesterday. They bought an 80% stake for €3.1bn (HUF965bn or 1.2% of GDP), the rest purchased by the French airport management company Vinci Airports. Analysts commenting on the deal ...
Largely mediocre numbers this week, from the growth point of view at least
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
This morning, the front page of KSH's website started with the pretty good-looking report that the volume of gross industrial output grew by 6.4% yoy in April. Yes, for sure, but there were three more workdays (21) in April 2024 than in April 2023 (18). Consequently, the seasonally and day-adjust...
Kazakhstan macro: no threat to the budget despite insufficient tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Jun 2024
Recent developments in Kazakhstan show that the country’s economy continues to grow at a decent pace, albeit with a slight deceleration, which is natural after last year’s overheating. Inflation decelerated in May to 0.4% m-o-m (versus 0.6% m-o-m in April), and this could have resulted (at least ...
The Senate approved the Mover bill, the MP on PIS/Cofins credits is being highly criticized, and the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill is expected to submit his report soon
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2024
Yesterday, the Senate approved the bill dealing with the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover Program). Although rapporteur Rodrigo Cunha (Podemos-AL) removed the taxation for international purchases from the text, the provision was included again through an amendment. In other tax news, ...
Slide Presentation: Israel - Monetary policy issues: Some good news and some bad news
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jun 2024
Get insight into the factors driving monetary policy rates in Israel with our slide presentation "Monetary policy issues: Some good news and some bad news".
The economy keeps adjusting to new realities
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2024
Rosstat reported that in 4M24, the combined output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 6.3% y-o-y. In April alone it was up by 5.5% y-o-y. Despite some deceleration the overall figure looks decent. Economic growth is largely driven by expanding domest...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2024
The Russian securities market appeared under pressure in recent weeks. Tighter rhetoric by CBR officials convinced investors that the key rate may be raised as soon as in June. Market started to price in this scenario, which sent the yield for 10-year OFZ above 15%, while the equity market index ...
Homemade Demand
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2024
First quarter GDP grew 0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly above the market's average projection (consensus 0.7%) but below our forecast (1.1%). On the supply side it was driven by the surprising expansion of the agricultural sector (11.3%) and, from a demand perspective, by robust growth...
Georgian Foreign Agents Law enacted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2024
On June 3 the law was published in the official gazette. The Speaker of Parliament had already signed it into law. The presidential veto was superseded by a parliamentary supermajority. The Speaker claimed that some of those who protested against the bill for months had already changed their mind...