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Lula has been traveling the country ahead of the municipal elections, the STF resumes adjudication of a case on dismissals in the public sector, and the strike in the Federal Revenue Service should end today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2024

President Lula has focused his attention on the three largest electoral colleges recently. Last week, for example, Lula went to São Paulo to participate in an event alongside Tarcísio de Freitas. Yesterday, he went to Rio de Janeiro and praised Eduardo Paes (PSD). And today, he will participate i...

New Prime Minister in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 6 Olzhas Bektenov was appointed. Parliament approved Bektenov: 69 voted for him and 7 abstained. None voted against. He vowed that his premiership will be about action not words. He said he will avoid unnecessary meetings and cut bureaucracy. Bektenov said his main task was to carry o...

Surprisingly strong tax revenues in January point to growth recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

January’s fiscal account reflects a surplus of 2.5bn ILS, both due to seasonal factors (low government spending by ministries in the beginning of the year) and to strong revenues of 43.7bn, declining only by 1.5% y/y. Spending for the war reached 6.5bn. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months in...

Pro-peace candidate not allowed to run for Russian presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

On February 8 the Central Election Commission made the announcement because there were many mistakes in the signatures of people who nominated him. Boris Nadezhdin is the candidate and he gathered 105,000 signatures, but the CEC invalidated 15% of them. Many of the signatures came from Russians a...

Preview for tomorrow's data release: year-on-year CPI-inflation is expected to have fallen sharply further in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

Local analysts asked in Portfolio.hu's survey have a median expectation of 4.2% yoy, following 5.5% yoy in December. In the Q4 inflation report, out in late December, the MNB predicted 4.8% yoy, but on January 30, right after the monthly rate-setting meeting, Mr. Virág said that it might have fal...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Jan 25 Oil transit: Belarus has raised tariffs for oil transit from Kazakhstan to Europe by 38%, from Russia - by 10.2% National Railways: Freight transportation by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 22% in 2023 to 28 mln tons Government: Kazakhstan plans to double production of agric...

Azerbaijan re-elects president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

On February 7 Azerbaijan's exit polls said that Ilham Aliyev is winning 94% of the vote. The polls have not yet closed. This comes as no surprise. He has ruled since his late father handed the role over to him in 2003. Every election Aliyev has won has failed to meet international standards of in...

Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for co...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...

A solution to the payroll tax exemption issue may be found this week, the president of the Parliamentary Agribusiness Front criticized the government, and Haddad is expected to maintain the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2024

According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the government leader in the Senate, Randolfe Rodrigues, a solution will be found to the payroll tax exemption issue by the end of the week. But Haddad believes everything will depend on President Lula's approval. The president of the Par...

Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...

EU foreign affairs high representative in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

On February 6 Josep Borrell paid his 4th visit since the war began. He said he was there to reaffirm the EU's commitment to Ukraine. All these declaration of absolute solidarity seem suspicious. If the EU is so obviously committed why is it impelled to repeat that mantra constantly? In March 2024...

Economic activity continues to recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

The CBS Business Survey for January points further recovery in economic activity. The net balance for current activity improved to +12 points from 7.4 points last month and -1.5 two months ago. Expectations for activity next month remained fairly weak at -1.75 (-2.13 last month) but employment ex...

Congress listed its priorities for the year, Lira stressed that the government needs to negotiate with Congress more, and Padilha will meet with Congress's leaders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2024

Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...

New data for December: poor industrial output, overcompensated by near-excellent retail sales figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

This morning, KSH has published mixed data for December. First the bad news: industrial output fell 0.3% mom, 8.9% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. The raw yoy figure was actually -13.7%, which seems disastrous, but there were two less working days in December 2023 than one year earlier....

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