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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 2
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024
The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
Moody’s decision surprises markets The downgrade from A1 to A2 was largely expected by markets towards the end of last week. But the combination of a downgrade with a negative outlook was not expected (by the MoF as well). According to Moody’s, the negative outlook was due to the risk of escalati...
Not much new here
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024
With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...
President of the Republic resigned yesterday, with no immediate consequences for investors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
President Katalin Novák announced her resignation yesterday. In addition, Judit Varga, former minister of justice and currently the leader of Fidesz' list for the upcoming European Parliament election resigned from all her positions, including a seat in Parliament, announcing her withdrawal from ...
US journalist interviews Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2024
On January 8 Tucker Carlson interviewed the Russian president. Carlson is a right wing TV presenter who worked for Fox News until 2023. Putin spoke for 30 minutes about his belief that Ukraine is not a real country. There was no doubt about Putin's sincerity when he traced Russia's history from i...
Active legislative week with positive results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...
GULF WEEKLY: Gulf tourism hits new records, Bahrain issues $2bn, Qatar-India LNG deal, no Gaza ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Feb 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Netanyahu called the Hamas ceasefire proposal “delusional” and is preparing to assault Rafah; this helped push oil back up to $82. * The US launched major strikes against Shia militias in Iraq, and Syria and continued to c...
Inflation surprised on the downside again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
The headline CPI-inflation rate for January was reported at 0.7% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, defeating analysts' median expectation of 4.2% yoy (even more our forecast of 4.5% yoy), and representing a sharp drop from 5.5% yoy in December. This means that inflation is now within the MNB's 2-4% med...
The Federal Police has seized Bolsonaro’s passport, next week will be the Carnival holiday, and Lula visited Minas Gerais alongside Rodrigo Pacheco
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2024
Yesterday's Federal Police investigation into an attempted coup d'état had broad political repercussions. President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies were targeted in the investigation. Bolsonaro's passport was seized. Due to the Carnival holiday next week, decisions on the payroll tax exemption, the...
Webinar Replay - Economic reform in Turkey and Argentina: comparative prospects
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Domingo Cavallo discussing economic policy in Argentina and Turkey as the countries try to shake off their reputations for economic mismanagement. Governments in both countries have committed themselves to economi...
CCA Highlights: Aliyev wins presidential elections in Azerbaijan; Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan cut rates; Tajikistan posts robust CA surplus in 3Q23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Feb 2024
We comment on key data and events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 50bpts to 8.75 percent Armenia: Remittances fall significantly in 2023 but remain above longer-term averages Armenia: Western incentives for PM to bolster his image Armenia: Armenia...
President Ramaphosa delivered his last State of the Nation Statement - more promises in a year of critical national elections
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
The State of the National Address (SONA) has become an institution even since the establishment of the democratic order in South Africa. It is an annual occasion for the Members of the Parliament (MPs) to dress up and turn the opening session of the parliament into a mini-national fashion show—di...
New top general appointed in Ukrainian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024
On February 8 President Zelensky promoted Oleksandr Syrsky to be the armed forces chief. Zelensky expressed gratitude to the previous armed forces chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky acknowledged in November 2023 rumors of tension between himself and Zaluzhnyi but said the rumors were false. Zelen...
Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024
The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...
Good presentation, let’s hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2024
The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year under the new Governor. The Bank kept its yearend inflation forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at 36% (midpoint of 30%-42%), and at 14% (midpoint of 7%-21%), respectively, unchanged from the October report, as we surmised earlier. The CBRT fo...