NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Tetchy G20 for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2022

On July 8 the meeting of the 20 largest economies took place in Indonesia. Western countries inveighed against Russia. Western countries did not walk out when Lavrov addressed the conference. The Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov walked out of the meeting because of Germany castigating the invasion...

CPI-inflation and cash budget deficit: bad news and good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2022

The forint is trading around EURHUF405 again, even though the MNB sold €1588m in exchange for forints for three days in reverse swaps today. Amidst these circumstances, key fundamental data appears to be particularly important. In that regard, there has been equally bad news and good news today. ...

Financial repression galore
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Ankara is getting increasingly desperate in its efforts to stop TL weakness and slow credit growth, against a backdrop of hugely negative real interest rates. The introduction of myriad ad hoc and distortionary measures – or ever-growing “financial repression”, in short – is having limited effect...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave peaks, Tecom declines after IPO, Kuwait-Bahrain bank merger
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell on recession concerns, briefly dipping below $100, despite growing turbulence in Libya. * The Covid wave may have peaked in early July, particularly in KSA, where daily cases have halved. * Saudi’s PMI rose to 57...

Webinar Replay: Ecuador - Dim light at the end of the tunnel
ECUADOR · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Despite protests, President Lasso has survived his impeachment vote. What is ahead for Ecuador? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Magdalena Barreiro discussing the ramifications of the crisis on Ecuador's outlook.

The vote on the PEC on Fuels was postponed to next week, the Senate should vote on the LDO on Monday, and yesterday President Jair Bolsonaro once again criticized electronic voting machines
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Due to lack of a quorum, Lower House President Arthur Lira postponed the vote on the PEC on Fuels, which expands social benefits, to next week. The postponement is a defeat for the government, which wanted to resolve the matter as early as this week. But it does not change the likelihood of appro...

Between candor and carelessness
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Jul 2022 · 1 response

How will outgoing president Iván Duque’s last Medium-Term Fiscal Framework affect President-elect Gustavo Petro’s fiscal strategy? First, the National Central Government deficit looks dramatically better under the 2022 MTFF. Not only did the 2021 NCG deficit result come in way below expectations ...

The forint jumped on a big sterilisation rate increase and government talk on concessions to the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2022

The forint appreciated back to EURHUF 402-403 on Thursday from the previous day's historic low at 414-417. The authorities did two things to achieve this: 1. The MNB raised the 1-week deposit rate (the effective sterilisation rate) by 200bps to 9.75%, after expressly saying that recent HUF deprec...

Russian bureaucrats appointed in occupied Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2022

Moscow has been putting officials in place in the regions of Ukraine that it controls. This is presumably preparatory to these areas' being integrated into Russia formally. A former Duma deputy, regional government officials and a senior FSB officer are among the appointees. It is said by officia...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Jul 2022

June 28 Samruk-Kazyna: The state-owned fund plans to conduct IPO of KazMunayGas by the end of the year Ministry of Energy: Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants LLP and nuclear technology supplier Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of nuclear energy dev...

The Special Committee of the House will vote on the PEC on Fuels, the PEC on the Nursing Salary Floor should be approved before the recess, and Paulo Guedes meets with Rosa Weber to discuss the ADI against PLP 194
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2022

The trend is for the PEC on Fuels to be approved before the recess, although the vote may be delayed until next week. The opposition is trying to gain support from 103 deputies to submit a request to postpone the vote on the PEC for up to 20 days. But it is unlikely to get enough support. The PEC...

Developments in monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2022

The inflation situation in India is in violation of the inflation target (which demands 4% inflation, and a band between 2 and 6 per cent), but the deviations are relatively modest when compared with those seen in DMs. The RBI is facing difficulties achieving its three objectives – exchange rate ...

Kazakhstan seeking new trade routes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2022

It is more than 30 years since Kazakh independence, and still most Kazakh oil exports go via Russia. Kazakh is able to transport some directly to China. Kazakhstan is seeking to find routes to avoid transshipping oil through Russia due to sanctions. Kazakhstan is cautious about over-reliance on R...

EURHUF at 415-417 today: the MNB will have take a much tougher approach to monetary tightening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2022

Tomorrow will be the day for this week's 1W deposit tender. With a seemingly uncontrolled slide of the forint for whatever reason (there are some around indeed), the MNB will have little else to do than markedly scaling up its tightening efforts. Please, notice that the MNB has just raised its av...

The CPI on the Education Ministry will begin activity only after the presidential election, the PEC on Fuels rapporteur decided not to increase the cost of the proposal, and the latest poll shows a stable electoral scenario with Lula in the lead
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2022

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco decided in favor of installing the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Education. However, the CPI will only begin activity after the elections. In practice, this CPI should lose political appeal aft...