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A political thriller and some other (more boring) stuff
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jul 2022

In this last Weekly Tracker before August recess, the politics author lays out, in Hollywood style fictional form, the roadmap to 2023 elections. The movie starts with the Big Reveal of how Kilicdaroglu and the Nation Alliance ended the Erdogan Era in May 2023 elections. It then goes back to Augu...

Russia ends gasflow to Latvia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2022

On July 30 Gazprom took action. Latvia is an EU and NATO country that is a former Soviet state. It has a significant Russian minority. Gazprom said it ended gas supply because Latvia is breaking conditions of purchase. Gazprom has already reduced gas supplies to Germany to 20% of capacity. The EU...

Ukrainian POWs killed by artillery strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2022 · 1 response

On July 28 over 40 Ukrainian prisoners in Russian captivity were killed when the prison they were in was shelled. Russia said that it was hit by Ukraine using HIMARS. Some of the POWs were from the Azov Battalion. The prison is in the Donetsk People's Republic in east Ukraine. Ukraine said the pr...

Russian macro: looking for a recession
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2022

According to recent estimates from the Economics Ministry, Russia's GDP contracted by 4.9% y-o-y in June. The contraction deepened after the 4.3% y-o-y decline in May and 2.8% in April. These are just the ministry’s estimates, but not the official SNA numbers to be published by Rosstat later (Ros...

The Henan banking and mortgage crises, and what they might tell us
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The crisis affecting a rural banks in Henan and Anhui, followed shortly after by a threatened mortgage boycott for apartments whose construction has been delayed, has renewed concerns about China’s property and banking sectors. These have both becom...

Rebound and resilience
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2022

With China still recovering from its lockdowns, GDP grew only 2.5% y/y in H1. A rebound in June lifted Q2 growth to 0.4% y/y. Industrial output rose 3.4% y/y in H1, down 3.1 pps from Q1. Investment growth was 6.1% y/y in H1, down 3.2 pps from Q1, but still 1.2 pps faster than in 2021. Retail sale...

Two recent polls show different electoral scenarios, Congress will resume activity, and next week is the deadline for holding party conventions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2022

While the Futura/Banco Modal poll shows that Lula and Bolsonaro are technically tied, Datafolha points to an 18% advantage between the PT candidate and Bolsonaro. There are also differences in the second round. For Futura, Lula has 46.2% of intended votes, compared to 41.6% for Jair Bolsonaro. In...

GULF WEEKLY: All bar Kuwait hike by 75bp, grand plans unveiled for The Line/Neom, Kuwait has a new prime minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Libyan production has nearly recovered, and the US announced additional strategic oil releases. * OPEC+ sources have downplayed US hopes for a major supply boost in September. * Once again Kuwait limited its rate hike to ...

Russian missiles strike Ukraine but ground attack stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jul 2022

On July 28 Ukrainian military bases in central Ukraine suffered missile strikes. Several soldiers and civilians were killed. Aviation equipment was damaged. Several small cities were hit. The attacks came on the Day of Ukrainian Statehood. Russian missile attacks and artillery bombardments are be...

The government announced in a press release that Sergio Massa will be a new “super” Economy Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Jul 2022

After Thursday´s market closure, the presidential press office published a brief yet significant statement, informing that “the Ministries of Economy, Productive Development and Agriculture … will be unified, also including relations with international … credit organizations. And that the new min...

The MDB officially launched Senator Tebet’s presidential candidacy, Bolsonaro reiterated his support for democratic institutions, and Ciro Gomes said that he does not see himself supporting Lula in the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2022

The MDB confirmed the candidacy of Senator Simone Tebet for the Presidency of the Republic. The PSDB and Cidadania also confirmed their support for the senator's candidacy. Eliziane Gama (MA), from the Cidadania, is a possibility as her VP. In response to the letter issued by the University of Sã...

Inflation forecast raised, but (unsurprisingly) not enough
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank raised its yearend inflation forecast for 2022 by 17.6 pps to 60.4% (mid-point of 56.9%-63.9%) from 42.8% in the April Report, which is still visibly below consensus (e.g., CBRT Survey of just under 70% and our somewhat high...

Growth is slowing down markedly, partial deregulation of retail gas and electricity prices to have a greater impact than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

In addition to the fact that the 1-week deposit rate was indeed raised by 100 bps, to 10.75%, at today's tender, which is absolutely no surprise after the Monetary Council's decision of two days ago, we feel it is appropriate to report two important details from MNB vice governor Virág's online p...

Philippines decides not to buy Russia helicopters over sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

On July the decision was announced, and the reason was US sanctions. The deal was for USD 227 million. Mi 17s were going to be bought. President Duterte made the decision in June 2022 just before he left office. Some money was paid in January 2022. The choppers could have been used for combat and...

Economy to flatten in 3Q20 after a shock in March and April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

Rosstat reported that in 1H22, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors was still up by 0.6% y-o-y 1H22, but it was down by 3.4% and 4.5% y-o-y in 2Q22 and June alone. As repeatedly mentioned in the notes of this series, the performance in various sectors of the economy was volatile and une...

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