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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Zelensky open to compromise
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022 · 2 responses

The Ukrainian President said he is prepared to consider recognizing Crimea as Russian and independence for the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, he said on March 7. However, he rejected ultimatums. Moscow said it would instantly end the war if Ukraine agreed to its demands. This includes neutrality ...

A moderate but important tightening step from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Just as expected, the MNB used today's prescheduled non-rate-setting meeting to tighten further, in view of yesterday's big weakening of the forint. But the Bank did relatively little on this occasion: it raised the ceiling of the interest rate corridor, which is the interest rate for O/N and 1-w...

The fuel issue remains on the agenda, Bolsonaro announces a new program aimed at helping women, and a demonstration is being called against the government’s environmental policies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2022

At 3 p.m., a meeting has been scheduled between Ciro Nogueira, Paulo Guedes, Bento Albuquerque, Roberto Campos Neto, and Joaquim Silva e Luna to discuss the fuel issue. The political wing of the government is concerned that the increase in the price of oil due to the war in Ukraine will be passed...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: The point of no return is reached
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Mar 2022

It looks as though the pandemic has become less of an issue as Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell to below 70K on March 8 from around 200K a month before. People almost stopped getting vaccinated, and the relative unimportance of pandemic-related issues became even more vivid for ordinar...

Ukraine conflict has Central Asia worried
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

Central Asia countries are perturbed by the situation. Their economies are very integrated with Russia's. As Russia's economy is falling so will theirs. There were 8 million Central Asian migrant workers in Russia before the pandemic. Many of them lost their jobs. The remainder may lose their job...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2022

The world is watching, shocked and apprehensive, the evolution of the war caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The aggressor is an autocrat who governs in nineteenth century style with twenty-first century weapons, leading an impoverished, deindustrialized and increasingly unequal country t...

Politics: Moments of decision in Mexican foreign policy
MEXICO · Report · 07 Mar 2022

Foreign policy has never been a priority for Andrés Manuel López Obrador. His dismissive approach is best summarized by his slogan that "the best foreign policy is a good domestic policy." The President’s thinking on foreign policy has been to a large extent boiled down to an overall defense of t...

Post-Carnival legislative agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2022

The government may announce measures to stimulate the economy. The Senate will resume the discussion of bills dealing with fuels. In the Executive Office, the Chief of Staff, the Ministers of Economy and Mines and Energy, and the President of Petrobras meet to discuss fuel prices. Instituto Paran...

Economics: Price spike benefits Pemex in the short run, but sector risks remain
MEXICO · Report · 07 Mar 2022

The CFE and Pemex presented their results for the fourth quarter of 2021 on February 26 and 28, respectively. Petróleos Mexicanos posted a 224.4 billion peso net loss while that of the CFE totaled 95.4 billion. The 2021 report marked Pemex’s 13th consecutive year of losses, and it is troubling th...

Turkey Covid Watch - March 7, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Cases began to drop dramatically after braking all-time records last month. For the week ending Sunday, cases stood at 47K, corresponding to some 45% decline from two weeks ago. Experts expect cases to decline further in the coming weeks. As a response to declining cases, many regulations includi...

The 12th day of war: terror-Russia
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

There were no big changes at the front from March 3rd. The Russians’ offensive was stopped, no big city surrendered or even was encircled. The largest progress was reached in the South, with Russian forces overriding several towns; however, the occupants cannot control the territory and they stay...

The Senate should vote on the fuel bills on Wednesday, the government is expected to announce measures to stimulate the economy, and two new polls on the presidential election will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2022

The Senate should make yet another attempt to vote on PL nº 1.472/21 and PLP nº 11/20 on Wednesday, March 9. The rapporteur for both bills is Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN). If approved in the Senate, the bills will go to the House for further analysis. The government is expected to announce me...

Some interpretations ahead of the IMF debate in Congress
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Last Friday, after some back-and-forth between the government and the main opposition regarding the final wording of the bill that will be debated this week in Congress, the full IMF agreement was finally presented to the Lower House and thereby disclosed to the public. Despite the frictions we d...

Israel’s exposure to Ukraine and Russia is minimal
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Mar 2022

1. Israel’s economic exposure to the Ukraine crisis is fairly limited. 2. Wage growth appears to be accelerating modestly, but the private sector is reporting a lack of available workers. 3. We see inflation's acceleration in the short-term supporting policy tightening, although the BoI ...

The MNB will need more robust action, the government is doing what it can
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

With the forint at EURHUF 395-400 today and down by 10% since the start of the war, it looks like the MNB will have to intensify tightening efforts this week. Unless the ECB provides extra help to the MNB to protect the forint, which may be wishful thinking on our part, the sterilisation rate wil...

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