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Politics: Law enforcement system in crisis, with reversals and new scandals
MEXICO · Report · 14 Mar 2022

The Mexican prosecutorial system as represented by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (FGR) has been unable to implement the promised modernization and, in fact, is mired in new scandals. Despite broad recognition across the political spectrum that the country’s prosecutorial system is in need...

Everyone woke up worried
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As of March 14th, we assign a 40% probability to a Petro victory. Petro or the center-right candidate have a similar predicament, namely the support of its base and the support of the undecided, swing voters, not aligned politically. This is a delicate and beautiful balance to be forged either...

Kazakhstan restricts taking currency and gold abroad
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On March 14 the president signed a decree limiting people to taking USD 10,000 in cash or gold abroad. This is due to the economic contraction in Russia, which has impacted Kazakhstan. The KZT has fallen 20% in the last 18 days.Kazakh banks no longer give their clients USD due to the paucity of t...

Legislative decisions that are beyond controversial
ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Last Thursday, the Assembly voted in favor of granting amnesty to all of those prosecuted for violent acts of public property destruction carried out during the riots of October 2019. Albeit some of the cases could fall within the category of political persecution, there is no doubt according to ...

War keeps the economy as a priority and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Bolsonaro holds the first ministerial meeting of 2022. It should be the final meeting with the current team, as nine ministers intend to run for elected office in October. Governors can question the law dealing with the ICMS on fuels in the STF. The CCJ of the Senate discusses Tax Reform. In term...

2022 Inflation revised down
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Because we see the central bank holding to its interventionist strong-bolivar approach to inflation containment and the government staying in control of its spending, we revise down our annual inflation forecast for 2022 to 143 percent. However, we expect fiscal discipline to start to relax in an...

The fuel issue remains a priority on the agenda, Bolsonaro holds this year’s first ministerial meeting on Thursday, and two new presidential polls will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

News circulated last week that truck drivers may organize a strike due to the increase in fuel prices. However, we believe this is unlikely to happen, as they recognize the government is putting in a great deal of effort to mitigate the effects of the price increases and that the increase is caus...

Liberal Russians moving to Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Since the Ukraine War began in February 2022 tens of thousands of Russians have gone abroad. Many have gone to the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is relatively liberal, everyone in the cities can speak Russian and the country has a low cost of living. Russians can stay in the co...

CA surplus and FDI remain robust
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Mar 2022

1. The current account surplus and net FDI together totaled 8.8% GDP in 2021, underlying Israel’s strong fundamentals and supportive of the shekel. 2. The fiscal deficit declined to 2.2% GDP in the last 12 months, supportive of further reduction in bond issuance. 3. We expect a CPI of ...

The 19th day of war: humanitarian convoys and tactical counterattacks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

All of us are involved in humanitarian convoys these days. Some are hosting displaced people, some are helping with humanitarian supplies, some are arranging logistics for civilians locked in the actions area. Hundreds of thousands of people are moving to the West, away from Russian bombs.Reports...

The CA surplus and FDI remain robust
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2022

Highlights:1. The current account surplus and net FDI together totaled 8.8% GDP in 2021, underlying Israel’s strong fundamentals supportive of the shekel.2. The fiscal deficit declined to 2.2% GDP in the last 12 months, supportive of further reduction in bond issuance.3. We expect a CPI of 0.5% m...

On tenterhooks
TURKEY · Report · 13 Mar 2022

The politics author is concerned that Turkey is edging close to a repeat of 2001, which could turn 2022 or 2023, into 2002. Too cryptic? Turkey’s 2001 crisis was followed by 2002 elections, which witnessed the disappearance of the “ancien regime”. At the home front, Erdogan and his AKP-MHP all...

Turkmenistan elects new president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2022

On March 13 Turkmenistan is holding an election. Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is retiring as president. His son Serdar, 40, is the red hot favorite. Turkmenistan is the most oppressive country in the world after North Korea. The cult of the personality around the president is ludicrous. All electi...

Armenia and Turkey negotiate on forming diplomatic relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2022

On March 12 the foreign ministers of the two countries met in Antalya, Turkey. It is the same town where Russo-Ukrainian talks took place days ago.Ankara and Yerevan have concurred that they shall continue their endeavor to establish normal relations. This would mean an exchange of embassies and ...

Uzbek cotton can be marketed abroad again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2022

On March 10, the Cotton Campaign said it no longer objects to people purchasing Uzbek cotton and textiles. The Cotton Campaign said that Uzbekistan has made huge headway in reducing forced labor.Previously the state forced millions of students and low paid public sector workers to do a couple of ...

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