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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Past performance is no guarantee of…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2022

GDP increased by 9.1%, y/y, in Q4, broadly in line with expectations, and up from 7.5% in Q3, while sequential (q/q) growth (in calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms) slowed to 1.5% in Q4, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter (Graph 1). It is worth highlighting that the output gap was stil...

Growing relatively well
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Although less than predicted, Indonesia saw a small spike in its economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Indonesian economy in Q4 2021 reported an increase of 5.02% year over year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.06%. This rate of growth was​ actually...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Feb 2022

1. We have revised our inflation forecast upwards for the coming months due to higher energy prices and a somewhat weaker shekel. 2. The Bank of Israel shifted to a tightening bias last week, preparing markets for tightening in the coming months. 3. We expect three hikes in the coming ...

The fifth day of war: the front has stabilized
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

The expected offensive of Belorussian army so far did not come to reality. Ukrainian army destroyed two more big groups of Russian forces that tried to take Kyiv into circle. But overall it looks like the fights have eased by now and the front has stabilized. If Russians do not bring more fresh b...

Associates of former Kazakh President jailed or removed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

On February 25 Darigha Nazarbayev, the daughter of former President Nazarbayev, resigned from Parliament. She had once been chairwoman of the senate and seen as a possible president herself one day.On February 19 the former Defense Minister Murat Bektanov was put into jail for a 2-month pre-trial...

Turkey eager to normalize relations with Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

There is some good news coming from the former USSR! On February 24 talks took place in Vienna. Both sides said the talks were optimistic but no clear outcome was reached.On February 23 the President of Turkey said he would like to restore diplomatic relations and trade. Special envoys have been ...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

The BoI is clearly signaling for an imminent hike Rates remained stable last week, but the FG was revised significantly to suggest tightening “in the coming months”. This more hawkish bias is due to both higher-than-expected inflation in December and January and very robust growth numbers. The la...

Speaking of unstable equilibria
TURKEY · Report · 27 Feb 2022

The Turkish media is mesmerized by the heartbreaking scenes of war in Ukraine, which means domestic politics has been relatively quiet during the week. President Erdogan, too, seems to have grasped that the Russia-Ukraine War could deal a big blow to the already shaky New Economic Model. Indee...

The 4th day of the war: UN reported 368 thousand refugees from Ukraine so far
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

These people have fled mainly to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. Hungary's share is 62k refugees cumulatively today.Receiving refugees near the border is starting to cost government money, but the costs are very substantially lower than one would think on the basis of arrival numb...

Fourth day of war: Kyiv mincer
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

Russians throw more and more battalions on well prepared positions of Ukrainian army near Kyiv. Dozens of videos witnessing huge losses of Russian forces. This one was recorded today in Bucha, the suburb of Kyiv. For the last night heavy shelling of Kyiv was expected but the night was relatively ...

3rd day of the war: Hungary is not blocking Russia's exclusion from SWIFT
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2022

While there is heavy fighting in the streets of Kiyv and elsewhere in Ukraine, and well over 100k refugees have left the country already, President Zelensky and the Kiyv Independent news portal separately hinted that Hungary (and Germany) is blocking Russia's exclusion from SWIFT, as part of west...

Third day of war: Putin’s offensive was stopped
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2022 · 3 responses

We were unable to give any reports on the developments around Russian’s offensive since we were pretty busy bringing our beloved people out of the action area. Now we are in relatively safe place if any place could be safe on these days in Ukraine. I plan to give some personal observations based ...

A livelier rebound
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Costa Rica showed a higher-than-expected rebound of economic activity in 2021, driven by a favorable external evolution, particularly in the United States, the country’s major economic and trading partner. Perspectives for the outlook horizon will be conditioned by the presidential election outco...

The 2nd day of the war: EU sanctions, refugees from Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022

The EU Council met last night, adopting various sanctions against Russia. The details are far not fully known yet, but the outlines suggest that even though the sanctions are significant, they fell short of what the anti-Russian lobby was hoping for.Following the meeting, PM Orbán went public imm...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Russia’s war in Ukraine hit the markets badly all across the board. The impact on the economy is yet to be seen as consumer behavior may change again amid a shock the nation (at least part of it) felt on February 24. The already imposed sanctions on Russia will obviously squeeze the country’s fin...

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